New England Patriots

ESPN analytics model gives Patriots these odds of top-three draft pick

The Patriots have a good chance at a top-three pick, but they're not a lock.

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The New England Patriots are in a strong position to earn a top three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but that outcome is not a mathematical certainty.

In fact, there's still a decent-sized chance the Patriots don't end up with a pick in the top three.

The Patriots currently have a 58 percent chance of a top three selection, per ESPN Analytics.

They have a 35 percent chance at finishing with the No. 1 or No. 2 pick.

The Patriots are 2-9 and currently own the No. 3 pick. The only teams worse are the Carolina Panthers (1-10) and Arizona Cardinals (2-10). Every other team has at least four wins, so the Patriots could still win another game and hold on to the No. 3 pick.

New England's remaining schedule is pretty difficult. In fact, the combined win percentage (.536) of the Patriots' last six opponents is the fifth-highest of any team.

There aren't a ton of winnable games left. One of the semi-winnable games is Sunday when the 4-8 Los Angeles Chargers come to Gillette Stadium for a Week 13 matchup. After that, the most winnable game for the Patriots is probably their Week 18 regular season finale versus the New York Jets at home -- assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't return.

So while the Patriots are no lock to get a No. 3 pick and have a guaranteed opportunity to select USC quarterback Caleb Williams, UNC quarterback Drake Maye or Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., you have to like their chances of falling in that range.

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