Why the Yankees are in first place, hosting the last-place Red Sox:
It was way back in the Bobby Valentine era of 2012 when the first-place New York Yankees played a series this late in the season against the last-place Boston Red Sox. But this week, the Sox have visited New York and, barring something unforeseen, the most significant events that will occur remains the highly anticipated debuts of two young pitchers: Henry Owens who started Tuesday night for the Sox, and Luis Severino who started Wednesday night for the Yankees. Each team lost the initial starts, but both pitchers impressed.
But think about it: the fact that two rookies made their first major league appearances in a Boston/New York series in August speaks volumes.
So do these stats:
First, let’s start at first. Mark Teixeira is having a massive season for the Yankees. At 35, he may not be quite as facile in the field, according to the Fielding Bible, he’s saved four runs defensively this season, but he’s having a huge season at the plate. His .268 batting average is 50+ points higher than his final average of 2014 and his 29 homers and 76 RBI put him in the top five in both categories throughout the majors. In the meantime, Mike Napoli, is struggling in what is anticipated to be his final season (or days?) at Fenway. By hitting .286 with three homers and 10 RBI since the All-Star break, Napoli has brought his season totals up to a paltry .209 with 13 homers and 40 RBI. He has 97 whiffs, compared to 74 for Teixeira.
Perhaps what’s even more painful for Red Sox fans are the numbers from each team’s senior-citizen DHs. Thirty-nine year old David Ortiz is hitting .244 with 21 homers and 60 RBI, while 40-year old Alex Rodriguez has shocked the baseball world by hitting .278 with 24 homers and 62 RBI after a year away from the game. Still, if you really want to know why A-Rod has the edge over Big Papi, look at their numbers with runners in scoring position: Rodriguez is hitting .276, and Ortiz .181, and with RISP with two outs, Rodriguez is hitting .286, and Ortiz .146.
After the first two games of the series, the Yankees are hitting .259 as a team, just a tad higher than the Red Sox .256, but the Yankees have outscored the Sox 526 to 451, have outhomered Boston 145 to 98, and have 60 more extra-base hits, 351 to 291. But if there were one offensive stat that speaks loudly to me it would be first-inning run production. Starters pitch differently with a lead and the Yankees have an MLB-leading 92 runs (more than any team in any inning) scored in the opening frame, while the Red Sox have scored a pedestrian 48 runs, 19th in the majors.
Boston Red Sox
Run scored cannot be viewed in isolation; you must look at runs allowed. The Yankees have allowed 457, tied for 14th most in the majors, but the Sox have permitted 525, the second-most in the majors, and the most in the AL. That leaves with the Yankees with a +69 run differential and the Sox with a -74, and no team in the AL has a worse differential than the Sox.
In the case of these two teams, it comes down to pitching. Actually, the Yankee pitching in this discussion really matters very little, because as feared, the Boston pitching has been horrid.
The Yankees team ERA is not a particularly exceptional 3.98, but it is a full half-run better than Boston’s 4.53, which ranks 27th in the majors. The MLB average ERA for starters is 4.01, which means the Yankees 4.35 is amongst the worst, but still better than Boston’s rotation with their 4.85 ERA, the worst in the AL.
The MLB average bullpen has a 3.57 ERA and a 1.274 WHIP. The Yankees pen has a 3.32 ERA and a 1.152 WHIP; the Boston pen sits at a 4.06 ERA and a WHIP of 1.351. The difference is that Yankee relievers have allowed just 261 hits, the third fewest in the majors, while Boston’s pen has permitted 353 hits, the most in the AL.
Junichi Tazawa has pitched 32.2 eighth innings for Boston. He has a 1.93 ERA, a 0.796 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in the inning. The Yankees’ Dellin Betances, in the exact same number of eighth innings pitched, has whiffed 54. Oh, he also has an ERA in that inning of 0.00, permitting just seven unearned runs, and a WHIP of 0.612.
Koji Uehara now has 24 saves and Andrew Miller has 23; Koji has blown two saves, Miller none. Uehara has a great 0.933 WHIP, Miller’s is an even better 0.722.
The Yankees thrive in Yankee Stadium, going 31-18, and survive on the road, with a 29-28 record. The Sox struggle at home with a 27-28 record and flounder on the road at 21-32. Yankee fans should note that with 56 games left in the regular season, they play 34 in the Bronx and they don’t have any remaining games out of the Eastern Time zone.
As for the front office difference, we all know that the Red Sox badly misjudged their acquisitions this offseason, but it has been Yankee GM Brian Cashman’s work in the season that fascinates. The Red Sox have used 23 pitchers in at least one game this season. Cashman has been mixing-and-matching all season long and has already used 30 pitchers. The franchise record is 33, set just last season, and we haven’t even reached the roster expansion of September.
There are many more telling stats, including the difference between having a veteran such as Brian McCann behind the plate and rookie Blake Swihart, which leads to the Yankee staff have a .264 BAA with runners in scoring position while the Sox have an MLB worst .292; or, that the first batter of an inning for the Yankees has an OBP of .318 and the Sox have a .287, the worst in the AL; or that since May 1, both Stephen Drew and Hanley Ramirez have hit nine homers each; or that since June 1, Yanks’ third baseman Chase Headley has hit .294 and Pablo Sandoval has hit .272; or that since June 1, Ivan Nova has a 3.10 ERA and Rick Porcello’s ERA is 6.32; or that the second time facing batters in a game Masahiro Tanaka has a .236 BAA and Eduardo Rodriguez has a .348; or that, or that, or that….
The differences between these two teams in early August seem innumerable. But Yankee fans are more concerned about positive differences between their opponents come October, while Red Sox Nation is concentrating on the potentially positive differences that will be hopefully evident next April.