While it’s clearly currently on the backburner with Dougie Hamilton out of the lineup recovering from a dinged up shoulder, the 21-year-old’s contract situation is looming as the biggest offseason task for the Black and Gold. Hamilton still isn’t a finished product by any means, but he’s tied for third on the team with 42 points in his only third NHL season while impressing in his top pairing D-man apprenticeship with Zdeno Chara.
Hamilton still isn’t strong enough in the D-zone on a consistent basis, he’s made his share of mental mistakes this season with positioning, and he still grapples with the always-challenging balance between offense and defense at such a key position. But there’s no denying Hamilton’s breakout campaign with 10 goals and 42 points in 72 games, and an average of 21:20 of ice time consistently against the opposition’s best offensive players. For a position that normally takes a player a long time to fully develop at the NHL level, Hamilton has made impressive strides in his third season.
The young blueliner’s talent, and value, was on full display while holding down the fort in Boston during November and December with Chara out of the lineup with a knee injury. Who knows what the playoffs will bring provided he’s healthy enough to return at some point?
The bottom line: Hamilton will be getting a nice, healthy bump from his entry level deal signed out of junior hockey with the Niagara IceDogs.
That’s fine and dandy because he’s earned it.
But for a team that’s not exactly awash in salary cap space like the Bruins, that’s not a welcomed situation. They already have roughly $57.5 accounted for among 15 players signed for next season, and estimates of a salary cap between $71.7 mllion-73 million for next season. It could be even lower than that given the likelihood that the NHLPA will again vote down the escalator feature to keep escrow money down for next season, but $71 million seems like a fair number for ballpark estimate purposes.
So that leaves the Bruins roughly $13 million in cap space for 5-7 players with Hamilton, Ryan Spooner, Brett Connolly and Niklas Svedberg all restricted free agents.
Certainly there are also a slew of unrestricted free agents like Carl Soderberg, Adam McQuaid, Matt Bartkowski, Gregory Campbell and Daniel Paille, but it seems very unlikely that any of them are coming back given Boston’s cap space, and given the underwhelming season as a whole.
Some of this offseason’s moves to clear salary cap space will be done at least partially to make room for Hamilton’s new deal. The hope is obviously the Bruins can ink the D-man to a reasonable bridge deal in the 2-3 year range of $3-4 million per season, and maximize their team control via restricted free agency and arbitration.
Something close to the five year, $20 million deal signed by Victor Hedman would be a fair deal for both sides, and the six year, $25 million deals signed by Jonas Brodin and Slava Voynov could be comparable contracts. The Bruins could even engage in the dance Montreal and P.K. Subban shuffled through for a few years, with bridge contracts and some hard feelings built up, before the Habs ended up making Subban the highest paid defensemen in the NHL.
But the Bruins might not be able to get the team-friendly bridge deal for Hamilton like they managed with Torey Krug and Reilly Smith. There are wolves at the door if the Bruins can’t come to an agreement with Hamilton by the July 1 open of free agency. One had better believe opportunistic GMs like Craig MacTavish and Jarmo Kekalainen will be ready to pounce on the defenseman with an offer sheet should that ever become an option.
Everybody knows that most NHL teams haven’t fully utilized restricted free agency, and the offer sheet, to pluck players from somebody else’s roster.
After all, the price in draft pick compensation for an accepted offer sheet is intimidating and picking somebody else’s fruit makes it open season on your own young talent when they ripen to restricted free agent status. But there’s also a real lack of available No. 1 defenseman across the NHL, and there’s no doubt teams like the Oilers, the Blue Jackets, and probably a few others, view Hamilton as a possible No. 1 D-man in the making.
Obviously the Bruins feel the same way after drafting him with a top-10 pick, and then watching Hamilton quickly develop into Chara’s partner after three improving seasons while becoming a skilled puck-moving defenseman, and a power play weapon from the point. There’s still some question as to how committed the 6-foot-5, 200-plus pound Hamilton will ever be to the defensive side of the game, but the raw tools are there for him to be a franchise-level No. 1 defenseman.
It’s no secret the Oilers covet Hamilton as a potential name in trade discussions when talks turn to the Taylor Halls of the world. They could be the type of team willing to unload the kind of six-year, $33 million deal Peter Chiarelli would rather wait a few years to consummate with his young defenseman were it entirely up to the Bruins.
But that was the deal it took for Arizona to lock up Oliver Ekman-Larsson as a 21-year-old, and something like that isn’t out of the realm of possibility for Hamilton. It’s also no secret that the Blue Jackets dealt James Wisniewski to the Anaheim Ducks ahead of the trade deadline, and that means they’ve freed up exactly $5.5 million per season to chase after the targeted defenseman of their choice.
One should expect Chiarelli and the Bruins, however, to have the same exact stance as every other coveted B’s players when they approached restricted free agency.
The Bruins general manager has consistently vowed to match any and all offer sheets thrown at his own RFA players by other teams trying to poach them. There’s no reason to think he won’t jump to do the same for a talented, young frontline D-man in Hamilton that’s expected to accept the baton from Zdeno Chara when his contract is up in a few years.
But a giant, long term offer sheet for Hamilton could continue to wreak havoc with the Bruins, and their compromised salary cap situation.
That’s why it would be in Chiarelli’s best interest to wrap up a new contract with Hamilton well ahead of free agency, and soon advance discussions that haven’t gone very far with the GM putting out far too many other fires this season.
One small bright side: it certainly appears like both sides will have plenty of free time to chat this spring with little expectation for a long, distracting playoff run.
ONE TIMERS
*Great run for Ondrej Pavelec in Winnipeg, who is helping guide the Jets toward their first playoff berth since leaving Atlanta four years ago. The Jets hold a two-point lead for the second wild card spot, and the much maligned Pavelec has been huge for them down the stretch while getting pushed by former B’s farmhand Michael Hutchinson this season. Pavelec is 6-2 with a 1.51 goals against average and a .950 save percentage during the month of March, and is bailing out a Jets team that’s a bit of a wall over the last few weeks.
Best of all, Pavelec didn’t want to bathe himself in glory after being named the NHL’s No. 1 Star for last week.
“My run? I’m happy I can help the team get the win, and that’s all that matters right now,” said Pavelec. “So really, I don’t want to talk about myself. It’s a team sport and we found a way.”
It’s also worth noting that Blake Wheeler has developed into a difference-making force in Winnipeg, and would lead the Bruins with his 25 goals and 59 points for the Jets this season. He’s been a leader on and off the ice, and has really taken some of the lessons he learned in Boston and applied them to his second team in Winnipeg.
* It’s no exaggeration to say fist-bumping, nine year old Bruins super fan Liam Fitzgerald has been one of the biggest highlights of this season for the Bruins. His friendship with the big-hearted Adam McQuaid, his remarkable story (born with Down syndrome and beat a leukemia diagnosis at the age of four years old) and the way the Bruins have embraced him is exactly what’s right about the world of sports. I was at TD Garden on March 26 against the Ducks when the Bruins presented Liam with his own Upper Deck hockey card with a picture of him wearing a B’s sweater. The look of wonder and surprise on the little boy’s face was better than any highlight reel goal you’ll see this season. It was a thoughtful gesture from the Bruins, and another great example of just how much sports can make a difference in the lives of special little kids like Liam.
*Kudos to the NHL for slightly changing the interpretation of a “distinct kicking motion” headed into this season. Prior to this year, a player subtly turning the blade of his skate to redirect a puck into the net was routinely ruled as “no goal.” It was extremely difficult to predict which of those incidents would be overturned, or upheld, by the NHL’s Situation Room. The league decided before this season that opening up the skate blade to redirect the puck into the net was a legal play, and not a “distinct kicking motion” like essentially punting a puck into the net. It’s been much easier to discern which goals will stand, or be overturned, this season and I’m always one for reasonable rules that promote goal-scoring rather than stripping away scoring weapons around the net. The Milan Lucic goal vs. the New York Rangers was Exhibit A of the new interpretation of the rule: Lucic pivoted his skate blade to direct the puck into the net rather than move his leg into a kicking motion. That’s been ruled a good goal by the NHL 10 out of 10 times this season, so I’m not sure what some members of the New York media were crying about on Saturday afternoon.
*Remember, keep shooting the puck at the net and good things are bound to happen.