2023 Week 4

Why Shane Vereen thinks Patriots can ‘absolutely' upset Cowboys

The last time the Patriots beat a 6.5-point favorite on the road was in 2016.

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Going into Week 4 of the NFL season, the 1-2 New England Patriots look to upset the 2-1 Cowboys in Dallas. While most sportsbooks have the Cowboys as 6.5-point favorites, former Patriots running back Shane Vereen isn't so sure of that.

Coming off a 15-10 Week 3 win against the New York Jets, Vereen likes what he is seeing in New England.

"I think this defense isn't talked about enough," Vereen told host Tom Giles on The Weekly Spread. "I think this defense is going to have a great plan to keep Dak in the pocket and to keep the score low."

The Patriots defense has certainly been the bright spot of the season so far. Throughout the first three games, where they played two of the league's top offenses in the Philadelphia Eagles and the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots have held their opponents to a combined 811 yards -- fifth best in the league. Breaking that down even more, the Patriots only allow an average of 4.4 yards per play, which is fourth-best in the league.

Even facing injuries to some of their top defensive backs, players continue to step up on the defensive side. The most notable standout has been none other than rookie Christian Gonzalez, who was just named Defensive Rookie of the Month. In his first three games, Gonzalez was responsible for 16 combined tackles, three deflected passes, a sack, and an interception. Against the Dolphins, the league's top offense, Gonzalez held Tyreek Hill to zero receptions on two targets in 1-on-1 coverage and Jaylen Waddle to only one reception on his sole target for 15 yards.

It's not just the defense that Vereen has faith in, but the improving offense as well.

"It's going to take time for this offense to finally gel and find their form. Each week I expect the offense to take a step in the right direction. It's not going to be perfect, but each week, if they're improving, then there's something to look forward to," Vereen said.

The Patriots offense has been far from perfect, but there is definitely an argument that they have improved. While Mac Jones is far from an elite quarterback, he's been performing above the other quarterbacks from his draft class this season, such as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, and Zach Wilson.

Jones, who was a Pro Bowler his rookie season, is already on track for his best season yet in Year 3. With a 64.8 percent completion rate, higher than all of the other 2021 QBs, Jones has already thrown for 748 yards and five touchdowns, with only two interceptions -- all while dealing with plenty of pressure behind a banged-up offensive line.

Vereen doesn't just think that the Patriots will cover the spread -- he believes they can beat the Cowboys outright.

"I absolutely do [think the Patriots can outright beat the Cowboys]," Vereen claimed.

The last time the Patriots won outright when they were underdogs of six or more points was back in the 2020 season where they beat Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens at home. They will look to upset the sportsbooks once again as they take on the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET.

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