FOXBORO -- Tom Brady's presence at Gillette Stadium on Sunday will provide fans an opportunity to say thank you. It will also, in some ways, be a reminder of just how seismically things have changed since his departure.
Chief among those changes, from a football perspective, is the safety net he provided for the overall buy-in of his teammates. For some who were around when Brady was last with the team and remain with the club, it's a change of which they are eminently aware.
As long as Brady was around, the other 52 players on the roster knew there was a very good chance that they'd be making a run at a Super Bowl by season's end.
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You could start the season off with an ugly loss in Kansas City and a .500 record through September. Didn't matter. Players would, for the most part, be locked in. They'd fall in line. They'd take cues from the best player on the team, and they'd comport themselves in a manner -- generally speaking -- that was consistent with a group of individuals who knew they would be in the mix for a title when it was all said and done. There was a championship mentality that permeated One Patriot Place.
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With only eight players -- Matthew Slater, David Andrews, Trent Brown, Joe Cardona, Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, Ja'Whaun Bentley, and Jonathan Jones -- having any idea of what it was like to play with Brady, the mentality is different now.
It's for that reason that some experienced members of the organization understand the first month of the season is absolutely critical in this new era of Patriots football. Not just because a single outcome in the first four or five weeks could mean the difference between making the postseason and not. It's because a rocky start to the year could chip away at the locker room's collective confidence level, which often seemed bulletproof when the greatest player in the history of the league was at its center.
The good news for the Patriots? Something they're finding as a source of some confidence headed into Week 1? They're seeing the Eagles early. They've had time to prepare for all that Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offense has to offer. They know it may take some time for Nick Sirianni's group to get into a rhythm since their starters rested through the preseason.
They know it won't be easy. But they also know they better start fast if they want to keep a relatively inexperienced roster fully engaged and full of belief. That's not as easy to come by as it once was. And Brady's return is a stark reminder of that.
Matchup to win the first half
Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick vs. Jalen Hurts
If the Patriots can keep the Eagles offense under wraps through the first 30 minutes, even if they're losing on the scoreboard, that should be considered a win. This is one of the most scheme-versatile attacks in the league, led by a deadly-accurate pocket passer who's a tank as a runner, the best offensive line in football, and arguably the league's best receiver tandem.
Tall order.
It's not the perfect offense, though. What if I told you that Jalen Hurts -- for as athletic as he is -- is actually one of the worst outside-the-pocket passers in the NFL? He was last year, at least.
According to Sports Info Solutions, when outside the pocket last season, Hurts was 29th in the NFL (among 34 qualifiers) in yards per attempt (4.2). He was last in EPA on outside-the-pocket throws, 27th in quarterback rating (52.5) and 30th in completion percentage (37.0). When under pressure, Hurts ended up 23rd in yards per attempt (5.6) among 35 qualifying quarterbacks. He was 23rd in EPA, 28th in rating (55.9) and 30th in completion percentage (42.7).
The takeaway? Get Hurts to move off his spot. Make him uncomfortable.
That would require the Patriots doing something they don't typically do against mobile quarterbacks. Oftentimes they want to execute a "mush rush" or what you'll often hear referred to in the Patriots locker room as a "crush rush." Remain disciplined. Drive opposing blockers straight backwards to collapse the pocket and force great athletes at the quarterback position to be stuck "in the well" behind center.
With Hurts, the approach could look very different. While he's an effective scrambler, the Patriots know he won't necessarily run away from defenders because his speed doesn't approach that of Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields or some other mobile quarterbacks. He ran a 4.60-second 40 at the combine a few years ago, and the Patriots have a bevy of second and third-level defenders who should be able to track him down if and when he breaks the pocket.
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The Patriots also know, however, that Hurts is more of a scramble-to-throw quarterback as opposed to a scramble-to-run guy. If they can make him antsy by blitzing (Hurts was 23rd in yards per attempt against the blitz in 2022, per Pro Football Focus) or winning off the edge with speed -- Josh Uche trying to bend around behemoth left tackle Jordan Mailata will be an interesting matchup -- then perhaps Mayo and Belichick can get Hurts off his spot and force him into the kinds of throws that had him at the bottom of the league last season when it came to effectiveness outside the pocket.
In the designed-quarterback-run game, Mayo and Belichick will have their hands full as well. Any chance they could force him to keep it on hard-to-handle zone-read run plays by crashing their ends hard down the line of scrimmage? If they can do that, dictate Hurts' read, and then have a good athlete and strong tackler -- Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips and perhaps even Marte Mapu would qualify -- waiting for Hurts on the edge, that might be the best way to hem him in.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots tight ends vs. Eagles safeties
If you were paying attention during Patriots training camp, maybe it won't be surprising to you to see Hunter Henry contribute in a meaningful way early on this season. He looks like Mac Jones' most trusted option -- particularly in gotta-have-it situations like down in the red zone.
What makes Henry, and Mike Gesicki for that matter, a potential weapon in Week 1 is what will be waiting for them in the Eagles secondary. Philly lost two starters at safety from last year's Super Bowl team -- Marcus Epps and C.J. Gardner-Johnson -- and it's unclear how those roles will be filled in 2023. Reed Blankenship (undrafted in 2022) looks like one starter. The other could be veteran Terrell Edmunds (allowed a quarterback rating of 132.4 last season when targeted, per PFF) or rookie third-rounder Sydney Brown.
Between the question marks at safety and those at linebacker -- starting "Mike" linebacker Nakobe Dean played 43 total snaps last season as a rookie -- the middle of the field should be available. And Mac Jones likes to go to work there; in 2021, under Josh McDaniels, according to SIS, Jones ranked 10th in the NFL in pass attempts targeted to the middle of the field to players aligned in the slot or at tight end.
If he gets back to a similar approach in 2023 under Bill O'Brien, that could mean Henry and Gesicki are busy between the numbers. And against the Eagles, there are matchups there worth trying to exploit. Empty formations, of which O'Brien is a known proponent, could allow Jones to identify those favorable matchups before the snap and help him find his big tight ends with some consistency.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Cam Jurgens vs. Patriots pass-rushers
The Eagles lost one starter off last year's dominating offensive line, and they replaced him with second-year interior lineman Cam Jurgens. Drafted as the next in line to take over for center Jason Kelce, Jurgens is a little Kelce-ish. He's a great athlete but a tad undersized at 6-foot-3, 303 pounds.
Can the Patriots take advantage of his frame with long-armed powerful bodies like Deatrich Wise, Christian Barmore or rookie Keion White in one-on-one matchups along the interior? Can they take advantage of his inexperience with stunts -- shown in great detail here by Eagles film guru Fran Duffy -- or blitzes?
When looking for a possible weak link along this Eagles line, look no further than Jurgens. The Patriots should be able to take advantage. They may not have the front that Philly does, but they ain't slouches up there. New England's pass-rush depth has flown a bit under the radar given the freaks who'll be on the opposite sideline Sunday.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Patriots corners vs. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith
No getting around this one. It will be one of the toughest matchups of the year for Patriots defensive backs. And it just so happens to arrive on their doorstep Week 1. When they have a rookie first-round corner looking to get his feet wet as a pro.
Not ideal.
There are reasons to believe Christian Gonzalez will be up to the challenge. He's an out-of-this-world athlete for someone his size. And there have been a number of highly-touted first-round corners in recent seasons who've hit the ground running from the moment they entered the league.
But A.J. Brown is about as difficult a challenge as you could come up with for a corner who slid a bit in the draft due to questions surrounding his level of physicality and his willingness to be an aggressor on the outside. And the reality is Gonzalez is going to find himself on Brown one-on-one at some point in a critical situation. They don't have another option. This is why he was drafted in the first round.
Give him help? They could. But not on every snap. It's just not feasible. Especially with DeVonta Smith on the other side, who'll likely be checked by veteran Jonathan Jones since Jack Jones (hamstring) is dinged up. Safeties over the top of one or both on a regular basis isn't an option... especially with the Eagles featuring an imposing running game that could go berserk if the Patriots opt to devote bodies to the secondary to defend against the big play.
So what's the answer? Expect plenty of zone coverage since the Patriots won't want to let Hurts run wild when he decides to break the pocket. Expect Patriots corners, meanwhile, to try to be as physical as possible with Philly wideouts -- especially the thin-framed Smith. If they can disrupt the timing of the passing game, keep eyes on Hurts and use stunts and blitzes to force Hurts from the pocket... that could be a recipe for success.
But against a multi-faceted attack with great one-on-one players like Brown and Smith, it's a difficult needle to thread.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Patriots offensive line vs. Eagles pass-rushers
While on the one hand it's nice for the Patriots to see the Eagles at this point in the year, before they've really hit their stride after their starters took the preseason off... on the other... this feels like the worst possible matchup right now for the Patriots offensive line.
Adrian Klemm's unit has been banged up. They're out of practice since Mike Onwenu (ankle), Cole Strange (knee), and Calvin Anderson (illness) missed training camp. And because of all the time missed, they're likely not as well-conditioned as they will be later in the year, making an up-tempo attack that wears down Eagles pass-rushers a borderline out-of-the-question proposition.
The Eagles, meanwhile, led the league in sacks a season ago despite ranking in the middle of the pack when it comes to blitz rate (22.1 percent, per Pro Football Reference). And their two first-round picks were twitchy pass-rushers out of Georgia: Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith.
What the Patriots might be able to do Sunday is run the football. Philly was 21st against opposing run games last year, according to Football Outsiders DVOA. And even if Bill Belichick's linemen aren't in peak physical condition, leaning on the size they have up front with Trent Brown (370 pounds), Onwenu (350), and rookie Atonio Mafi (330) -- who could see action if Strange isn't a full go -- isn't a bad alternative.
The team knows it has to do what it can to win the time of possession battle and keep the game within striking distance against an opponent whose average scoring margin last season led the league (9.3). The running game has to help them on that front.
But O'Brien can't build the entire plane out of power, counter, and other gap running schemes we're expecting to see from him. When forced to throw, the new offensive coordinator's plan could end up looking like one of those well-worn Brady plans from back in the day when the ball was released within two seconds of being snapped, diffusing potent pass-rushes whenever Brady's protection happened to be overmatched.
If Mac Jones is going to hold onto it much longer than that, given the state of his offensive line, it's not going to end well.