FOXBORO -- If you're sitting there asking yourself why you should be watching Sunday's game between the Patriots and Bills, there are a variety of reasons. Seriously. Let's lay 'em out.
There's a chance a young player -- maybe Demario "Pop" Douglas, who could be back from a concussion this week? -- ends up standing out and providing some measure of hope for the future. You'd take a little Vitamin H right now.
Maybe a veteran player who's not under contract for 2024 -- someone like Kendrick Bourne, perhaps? -- ends up having himself a day and increasing his value for the upcoming Oct. 31 trade deadline. If you're one of those who's looking toward next season and beyond already, you should want to see a trade chip or two show out against Buffalo.
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If it's keep-them-around character guys you're looking for, you should be able to find a few in a game like this one. Who's giving relentless effort? Who's still engaged? Provided they're talented enough, those are the types of players the Patriots and their fans should want to keep even as the team rebuilds.
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Then there's what's happening on the other sidelines. With seismic change possibly on the horizon this coming offseason, and potentially at quarterback, it's fair to wonder if Robert Kraft may look at this game -- and at Josh Allen in particular -- and wonder to himself, "How do we get our hands on someone like that?"
Maybe you're already at that stage and have been for a while. But this game has the potential to function as a painful reminder of where the game seems to be headed at the most important position.
Let's get to the preview...
Matchup to win the first half
The Patriots vs. Themselves
It's been well-publicized. And even Bill Belichick is willing to admit it. The Patriots are a slow-starting team. They've gone into halftime in five of their six games down by 10 points or more. Their defense has allowed points on the game's opening drive in four games, and in three of those games they've allowed 10 points during the opposition's first two drives.
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The Bills, meanwhile, are averaging nearly 15 points in the first halves of games (14.6) despite going scoreless in the first 30 minutes in their nail-biter win over the Giants in Week 6. They're the third-highest scoring team in the league, they're third in offensive DVOA, and Allen's QBR (an ESPN-generated metric that essentially gauges how frequently a quarterback's performance would result in a win for his team) is second-best in the NFL at 75.3. Despite some concerns over their recent performances offensively, the Bills remain one of the most dangerous offenses in football. If the Patriots can't stop them early, they've shown this year they aren't well-equipped to dig themselves out of a hole.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots running game vs. Bills defensive front
The Bills have figured out a way to have an effective defense -- they're sixth in DVOA and third in points allowed this season -- without being able to stop the run. They sit at 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.4), ahead of only Denver. According to Sports Info Solutions, no team allows more yards per carry (6.9) on the types of downhill runs the Patriots have often favored over the years, like power, counter, trap, wham and duo.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo vs. Ken Dorsey
Let's be honest, this is a difficult category to pin down this week. Not many matchups to love in this one if you're a Patriots fan. Although what we highlighted above, with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott poised to impress against the Bills, could qualify.
Here's another one...
When under pressure last week, Allen averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt and had a quarterback rating of 60.4 against the Giants. A week earlier, against the Jaguars in London, Allen averaged 2.0 yards per attempt under pressure and had a pick that helped his quarterback rating in those situations fall all the way to 4.9.
The issue for the Bills isn't just that Allen has been bad under pressure lately. It's that he's been pressured at the 10th-highest rate in the league over the last two weeks (40.6), per Pro Football Focus.
There could be an opening there for Mayo and Belichick to try to exploit, though they'll have their hands tied to a degree. Without arguably their top-two pass-rushers in Matthew Judon (injured reserve) and Josh Uche (ruled out for Sunday with knee and ankle issues), the Patriots may need to get Allen to hold the football -- and maybe they can do that by over-committing to Stefon Diggs early in downs -- invite pressure, and then make a game-changing mistake or two when sped up.
One thing you can count on is that the Patriots will try to come up with ways to bother Allen with their scheme. They are, according to Pro Football Reference, the second-highest blitz rate team in the league this season.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Stefon Diggs vs. J.C. Jackson
J.C. Jackson is settling in back with his old team. Having players around like Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant, Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips and Jalen Mills has helped him feel comfortable back in the locker room -- even if his stall is closer to some of the defensive linemen than it is the corners.
But Sunday's matchup with Stefon Diggs isn't exactly comfort-inducing for any corner. In three matchups back in 2021, Jackson allowed 152 yards and a score to Diggs on nine catches and 16 targets, per PFF. Diggs is third in the NFL in receiving yards this season (620) and he's seventh in the league in PFF's yards-per-route-run metric. Always a tough matchup, at almost 30 years old (his birthday is next month), Diggs is playing some of the best football of his career.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Mac Jones vs. Bills pass-rush
The Patriots had a lengthy injury report throughout the course of the week, but they caught a bit of a break on the other side. The Bills are going to be without one of their most impactful pass-rushers, Ed Oliver, due to a toe injury after racking up a team-leading 20 total pressures through six games. They're also without interior rusher DaQuan Jones, who's fourth on the team in pressures with 15.
That's good news for a Patriots offensive line that has struggled with communication thanks in part to a lack of continuity among its personnel. And they could be getting a familiar face back at left guard in Cole Strange, who has missed time with a knee injury and is officially limited for Sunday. More good news.
Still, even with Oliver and Jones out, and with Strange possibly in uniform, this is a difficult matchup for New England.
First, if Strange is back in the fold there remains the potential for mishaps as he's missed enough practice time dating back to the summer that some of the quick-trigger reactions necessary for success at his position may take some time to re-establish. Practice time matters, particularly for a young player in a new scheme like Strange.
Additionally, if there are openings there for the Bills on a Patriots line that ranks 29th in PFF's pass-blocking efficiency rating, they'll likely find 'em. Buffalo owns the league's best pressure percentage at 31.1 percent to this point in the season.
How does Mac Jones handle it when pressure inevitably arrives? He's tied for the league lead in turnover-worthy plays when under pressure this season (seven), and he has the sixth-worst rating under pressure in the NFL among 29 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season. Given the general lack of explosiveness this offense has exhibited -- they're third-worst in the NFL with just 10 plays of 20 yards or more this season -- a turnover or two when under duress would be too much for the Patriots to overcome.