The Boston Red Sox' chances of making the 2023 MLB postseason stood at 16.8 percent seven days ago, but over the last week those odds have plummeted by more than 50 percent.
The Red Sox haven't played horribly during that stretch, but a 3-3 record simply isn't good enough when you have to leapfrog multiple teams in the American League wild card standings.
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Making matters worse is the fact that the two teams in front of the Red Sox, the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays, have won eight straight and three straight games, respectively. The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Red Sox? Just 5-5.
Here's an updated look at the Red Sox' chances of securing a playoff spot, per FanGraphs.
After sweeping the rival New York Yankees last weekend, the Red Sox have lost back-to-back road games to the Houston Astros. They have two more games in Houston before welcoming the Los Angeles Dodgers to Fenway Park for three games, and then the Astros again for three more matchups.
This stretch in the schedule is brutal for the Red Sox and could end up being the final blow to their postseason hopes. In fact, their remaining schedule is harder than every team in baseball except the Colorado Rockies.
The Red Sox aren't dead yet, but the challenge facing them is extraordinary. They will have to play their best baseball of the season over the next six weeks and do it against many of the sport's top teams.
Boston isn't likely to finish last in the American League East for the third time in four seasons. The Yankees' horrendous play of late, including a nine-game losing streak, has saved the Red Sox from that embarrassment.
But unless we see a surprising and substantial turnaround from the Red Sox, Fenway Park will not play host to postseason baseball in October.