New England Patriots

Patriots' odds of landing No. 1 pick rose in Week 11, per ESPN Analytics

Landing the top pick is still possible for the Patriots.

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The New England Patriots aren't the favorites to earn the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but their chances of landing the top selection did rise a little bit as a result of the Week 11 games.

The Patriots, who sit at the bottom of the AFC standings with a 2-8 record, had a Week 11 bye. But their draft position improved Sunday with the Giants' surprise victory over the Washington Commanders, which moved New York behind New England in the updated first round draft order.

ESPN Analytics now gives the Patriots a 5.2 percent chance of getting the No. 1 pick, which is a 0.4 percent improvement from their odds at this time last week.

The Patriots will enter Week 12 with the No. 3 pick, but they might not hold on to that spot for long. They play the Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon, and a victory over New York would drop the Patriots to at least the No. 4 spot, and potentially lower depending on the results of the other games.

One thing working in the Patriots' favor in regards to landing the highest possible first-round pick is their tough remaining schedule.

New England's final seven opponents have a combined .539 win percentage. Based on that stat, the Patriots have the third-toughest schedule of the teams currently in the top 10 of the draft order. Only the Arizona Cardinals (.549) and Tennessee Titans (.544) have a more difficult remaining schedule among that group of teams.

Securing a top-three pick in what is considered a very strong draft in terms of talent and depth is key to the Patriots' rebuilding their roster as quickly as possible. A selection inside the top three would guarantee them the opportunity to add one of the top QB prospects -- USC's Caleb Williams and UNC's Drake Maye -- or a generational wide receiver prospect in Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr.

Therefore, it's hard to downplay the significance of Sunday's matchup in New York for both the Patriots and Giants. The real winner will be the team that walks off the field as the loser.

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