Before we get into the Week 5 picks, let's first revisit Week 4. It was a rough weekend for the crew, which went a combined 8-20-2.
Ted Johnson reclaimed a share of the top spot by going 1-2. He shares first place with John "Fading the Patriots" Tomase, who has yet to register a losing week.
Week 5 will be especially big for Boston Sports Tonight with Michael Felger and Michael Holley, as the co-hosts have gone a combined 0-12 over the past two weeks.
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Here's a look at the current standings:
Let's get to this week's picks:
Week 5 Trends
Patriots-Saints movement
The Patriots were -2.5 in the lookahead line for their Week 5 matchup with the Saints, but that number swung in New Orleans' favor -- through zero -- making New England (+1) an underdog at home as of Thursday night. (The Patriots moved back to -1 on Friday morning.) Obviously the disastrous loss to Dallas had something to do with that, along with the injuries of Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon.
The Saints, meanwhile, are 0-3-1 ATS this year and seem committed to starting Derek Carr despite the AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder. The total is down to 39, which is the second-lowest on the board (PIT vs BAL O/U 38). New Orleans is the only team to go UNDER in all four of its games this year.
As for our group, we've got three bets on the Patriots at +1 and two on the Saints at -1.
MORE PATRIOTS COVERAGE
Big buy-in on Bills
There's overwhelming support for the Bills after they dismantled the Dolphins last week. We've got six picks on the Bills (-5.5) and zero on the Jaguars.
However, this "home" game for Buffalo will be played in London, where Jacksonville has a big travel advantage having stayed in the UK since breezing past Atlanta in London a week ago. So the Bills had to travel this week and the Jags didn't.
That being said, favorites have historically had the edge in international games.
Ravens, Ravens, Ravens, Steelers
There's not much to like about the Steelers (+4.5) as they host the Ravens. Kenny Pickett has struggled and is now dealing with a knee injury. The play calling has been anything but inspiring. But the historical data favors Pittsburgh!
Check out these numbers, courtesy of Action Network:
- In the regular season, when the line is 3 or more, the underdog is 21-3-3 ATS in this series since 2005.
- The underdog has covered 11 straight in this rivalry and is 15-1-1 ATS since 2015.
Even with that, we've got three bets on Baltimore and just one on Pittsburgh.
Other lopsided action
As a group, we've got six games with 2-0 action and all six are laying the points: Lions -10, Dolphins -12, Eagles -4, Bengals -3, Chiefs -3.5 and 49ers -3.5.
In fact, for the week, only seven of our 30 picks are on the underdog, and that includes the Patriots at +1.
Two games we were too afraid to touch
- CHI +6 at WAS
- NYJ +3 at DEN