2023 Week 5

Why Patriots might actually have success defending Saints' passing attack

Derek Carr's injury is something to keep a close eye on.

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The New England Patriots defense is pretty banged up right now, especially in the secondary.

It's possible that the Patriots will be without cornerbacks J.C. Jackson, Jack Jones, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones and Christian Gonzalez for Sunday's Week 5 game against the New Orleans Saints at Gillette Stadium. We know Gonzalez and Marcus Jones won't play. Jack Jones is eligible to come off injured reserve but hasn't done so yet. Jonathan Jones missed the last three games with an ankle injury. Jackson was just acquired from the Los Angeles Chargers via trade but recently admitted he's not 100 percent healthy.

With all these question marks at cornerback, how are the Patriots going to slow down a Saints offense that has stud wideout Chris Olave, veteran wideout Michael Thomas and versatile running back Alvin Kamara?

The answer starts with Derek Carr.

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The veteran quarterback was knocked out of the Saints' Week 3 loss to the Green Bay Packers with an AC joint injury in his throwing shoulder. His status for Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was uncertain for most of last week but he ended up starting.

The decision was a poor one. Carr struggled massively versus an average Bucs defense.

He completed 23 of 37 pass attempts, but 13 of those completions went to Kamara out of the backfield, and those plays yielded just 33 yards (2.5 per catch). Only one of Carr's completions went for more than 12 yards. Thomas was the only Saints wide receiver who tallied more than one reception. Carr had almost no success throwing the ball downfield, and his 3.4 yards per pass attempt was his worst single-game total since the 2016 season.

It's pretty obvious the shoulder injury is still impacting Carr, and if that's the case, the Patriots defense could actually find success against the pass despite all the injuries at cornerback.

Another factor is the Saints' inability to run the football effectively. New Orleans is one of eight teams averaging less than 100 rushing yards per game entering Week 5, and they are averaging the sixth-fewest yards per carry (3.5). If the Patriots are able to stop the run and force a less-than-100-percent-healthy Carr to throw the ball often, they should be able to keep the Saints offense under 20 points.

This would be huge for the Patriots because they aren't built to win a high-scoring game given the struggles of their own offense. New England is the third-lowest scoring team in football at 13.8 points per game and generated only a field goal during a 38-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.

It's hard to have much faith in the Patriots pass defense right now, especially with some of the offenses coming up on the schedule -- like the Buffalo Bills in Week 7 and the Miami Dolphins in Week 8. But for this week, the Patriots should be OK if Carr is still not 100 percent.

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