The results of the Week 14 "Monday Night Football" games couldn't have gone any better for the New England Patriots.
The New York Giants upset the Green Bay Packers with a last-second field goal, improving their record to 5-8. The Tennessee Titans pulled off a more stunning upset, overcoming a 14-point deficit in the final three minutes to beat the Miami Dolphins 28-27 to improve to 5-8.
Why were these outcomes so beneficial to the Patriots?
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Week 14 started with five four-win teams behind the Patriots in the order for the 2024 NFL Draft, and four of them lost, including the Giants, Titans, New York Jets and Chicago Bears. This means there's now only one four-win team behind the Patriots: the Washington Commanders, who had a Week 14 bye.
So if the Patriots win another game, the most they could slide in the draft order is to No. 4 overall. Entering Week 14, it was possible that a fourth win could drop the Patriots all the way to the No. 7 or No. 8 pick.
Here's the updated top 10 of the draft order:
10. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-8
9. Tennessee Titans, 5-8
8. New York Giants, 5-8
7. New York Jets, 5-8
6. Las Vegas Raiders, 5-8
5. Chicago Bears, 5-8
4. Washington Commanders, 4-9
3. Arizona Cardinals, 3-10
2. New England Patriots, 3-10
1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers, 1-12)
The Patriots had a 62 percent chance of landing a top-three pick entering Monday night's games, per ESPN Analytics. Those odds have improved to 75 percent as a result of the Giants' and Titans' victories. That's a pretty large increase.
The Commanders might be the primary threat to the Patriots earning a top-three pick. That said, they do have a couple winnable games coming up versus the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets.
Here are the remaining schedules for the Patriots, Cardinals and Commanders:
All three teams have a tough schedule over the final four weeks. The Patriots will be guaranteed at least a top-three pick if they lose all four of their matchups. If there is a tie between one or more teams, the first tiebreaker is strength of schedule. The team with the worst strength of schedule gets the best pick. The Patriots are projected to have a worse strength of schedule than the Cardinals and Commanders by the end of the season, but these numbers can vary quite a bit from week to week.
The Patriots didn't help their chances of getting a top-three pick by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday, but a lot of that damage was erased thanks to the Giants, Jets, Bears and Titans all winning. There are still ways for the Patriots to slide out of the top three, but the odds of that happening are now smaller after Monday night.