Celtics-Heat preview: Staff predictions for the East Finals
We don’t have a traditional battle of the Big Three like we’ve seen and experienced in the past when the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat prepared to face off during the playoffs.
But then again, nothing about this season or the playoffs has been traditional, right?
However, what this series may lack in established top-shelf stars, it more than makes up for with on-the-rise talent like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Miami's Tyler Herro, and gritty leaders like Marcus Smart and Jimmy Butler.
It also features two of the NBA’s top coaches in Boston's Brad Stevens and Heat leader Erik Spoelstra.
As Spoelstra pointed out recently, there’s very little to go all-in on when it comes to preparing for this series based on what happened during the regular season. The two played three games with Boston coming away with a pair of wins, but there was at least one rotation mainstay missing in all three games.
More telling than anything is how each of the teams have handled themselves through the first couple rounds of the playoffs.
Miami opened with an Indiana team missing its best rebounder, and followed that up against a Milwaukee team that could not adjust to the physicality of the Heat or the versatility of Miami’s perimeter shooters.
Boston’s defensive versatility was key to them sweeping Philadelphia and outlasting last season's NBA champion, the Toronto Raptors.
The Celtics' defense should allow them to be effective at a much more consistently high level than Indiana and Milwaukee were against Miami. And unlike those two teams, the Celtics are getting healthier in the process of winning, with Gordon Hayward (ankle) expected to return at some point in this series as early as Game 2.
A combination of what the Celtics are capable of doing defensively, the balance that they bring to the game at the other end of the floor coupled with the edge that they have in terms of core guys having experienced the lessons that come about getting this deep into the postseason, are just some of the key factors that will determine the winner of this series.
This Heat roster is a fascinating blend of playoff-tested veterans (Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Andre Iguodala) and fresh-faced sharpshooters (Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro) with a versatile young All-Star center (Bam Adebayo).
They hit you with a whole bunch of grit while bullying their way to 28.4 free-throw attempts per game on offense and living in your jersey on the defensive end, then deliver a dash of grace while connecting on 38 percent of a whopping 37.1 3-pointers per game. Mad scientist Pat Riley found the right blend of talent with some deadline tinkering and coach Erik Spoelstra has made it all work during the bubble restart.
Which is to say that little will come easy for the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. The Heat are well-rested, too, after ousting the top-seeded Bucks in 5 games while Boston slogged its way through a seven-game war with Toronto that included a double-overtime Game 6. The Heat will be eager to pounce early and extend the momentum they’ve built.
But here’s the bottom line: The Celtics have more overall talent. Sure, Butler is probably going to singlehandedly produce a win in a close game. The Heat will probably have at least one night where they can’t miss from beyond the arc. But over the balance of the series — and especially if Gordon Hayward can come back anywhere near full health — the Celtics have too much top-end talent to not prevail in this series.
It’s hard to see the Heat bottling up Walker the way that Toronto was able to. Boston’s wings can put an awful lot of stress on the Robinson/Herro/Goran Dragic trio if they prioritize ball movement and seeking out the right matchups.
If Boston can play defense with anywhere near the consistency they’ve shown through this postseason, they are going to make it tough for the Heat to keep pace.
I'm going Celtics in five and knowing I'm going to find out whether that's a crazy pick reeeeeal quick.
On paper, this should be a cakewalk for the C's. They handled them before the bubble (2-0) and each key player has had their own success story against Miami. Kemba Walker scored 28 against them in a game this season. Jaylen Brown had a 31-point performance and a 25-point game. Gordon Hayward had a 29-point game. Daniel Theis had a double-double. Jayson Tatum averaged 21 points in his two games.
And really, while I think Toronto was extremely overrated, this should be a step down in competition for the Celtics. The only thing that worries me is that the Celtics looked unproven and even overwhelmed by the moment at points of the second round.
Miami, the No. 5 seed, has nothing to lose. That could be a dangerous combo, but I'll assume both teams bring their best and Boston's easily outshines Miami's.
