It might be hard to remember, but the Toronto Maple Leafs were once in control of their first-round Stanley Cup Playoff series against the Boston Bruins.
After losing 5-1 in Game 1, the Leafs rebounded very well in Game 2. Their power play finally broke through, their star players found the scoresheet -- including a game-winning goal in the third period by Auston Matthews -- and goaltender Ilya Samsonov played really well. The Leafs were headed home for the next two games.
But all that momentum disintegrated in Toronto, where the Bruins earned a pair of hard-fought victories to take a 3-1 series lead and push the Leafs to the brink of elimination. Special teams dominance and elite goaltending by the Bruins have been the key differences so far. Toronto's marquee players, especially Mitch Marner, have failed to produce offense consistently.
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The series quickly swung in the Bruins' favor, but if history is any indication, the series easily could swing back in the other direction in a small amount of time.
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The fourth win is always the hardest in a best-of-7 series, and the Bruins know that better than just about any other team.
NHL teams have overcome 3-1 series deficits 32 times in playoff history, including seven instances in just the last 10 years. The Bruins were on the losing end in three of those 32 series:
- 2004 first round vs. Montreal Canadiens
- 2010 second round vs. Philadelphia Flyers (B's had 3-0 series lead)
- 2023 first round vs. Florida Panthers
In 2013, the Bruins had a 3-1 lead after beating the Leafs in overtime of Game 4 on the road. Boston needed a historic Game 7 comeback to win the series.
This series versus the Leafs has unfolded almost exactly how last season's first-round matchup against the Florida Panthers did.
The Bruins won Game 1, lost the next game at home, then earned two victories on the road to take a 3-1 series lead entering Game 5 at TD Garden. But the Panthers won the next three games, led by better goaltending, massive special teams improvement and their best players -- especially Matthew Tkachuk -- taking over the series. Two of Florida's three consecutive wins came in overtime, including a Game 7 triumph in Boston.
“I think what we can learn is the urgency it takes to finish off a series,” Bruins head coach Jim Montgomery told reporters Sunday. “It's so hard to end a team’s season, and we know that. I think everyone that was part of it last year is better off for it.”
The Leafs are in a bad spot right now. The star players were yelling at each other on the bench in the third period of Game 4. Their power play (1-of-14) and penalty kill (7-of-13) have been atrocious. Marner is having the worst playoff series of his career and is getting publicly called out by the media and former players.
This looks like another trademark playoff meltdown by Toronto. It seems almost inconceivable that the Leafs could beat the Bruins three consecutive times, including twice in Boston, when they've lost 10 of 12 meetings between these rivals since the beginning of last year. But people said the exact same thing last season when the Panthers, who barely made the 2023 playoffs, were staring at a 3-1 hole against a Bruins team that set records for the most wins and points in a regular season.
The odds of this Leafs team replicating the Panthers' comeback from last year are pretty slim. This is the Leafs, after all, a franchise that is seemingly cursed in the playoffs. Few teams in sports have experienced more postseason frustration than Toronto since the franchise's last Stanley Cup title in 1967. Even though the Panthers sneaked into the 2023 playoffs, they did win the Presidents' Trophy in 2022 and won the division this season. They're a very good team.
But we're also dealing with the Bruins, a franchise that rarely makes it easy for themselves. They've played in five Game 7s since the start of the 2018 playoffs, the most of any team during that span. The B's had a lead in five of the last six playoff series they've lost. Boston also has won just 15 of its last 29 home playoff games (two wins in their last six postseason at TD Garden). The Bruins have won only one of their last five Game 5s, too.
The Leafs' stars could get hot. Marner can't play any worse, and William Nylander is back after missing the first three games due to injury. The Leafs ranked second in goals scored during the regular season for a reason. Toronto's power play, which had the seventh-best success rate in the regular season, could find its groove again with a few changes. The Leafs' 25 road wins this season, including Game 2 in Boston, are the third-most in the Eastern Conference.
The Bruins must show they are a different team than last season, and that they've learned their lessons from previous playoff failures. When you have a team on the ropes, you have to go in for the kill. Giving a team just a small jolt of life can quickly turn a series around.
Given what's at stake, what happened last season and how well the Bruins are playing right now, there are no excuses not to finish the series in Game 5.
"You always feel good when you have a lead in the series, playing at home in front of our fans," Montgomery said Sunday. "But we're just staying in the moment. For us, all we're thinking about is Game 5 on Tuesday night."