The New England Patriots should be a better team in 2023, and maybe even a significantly better team offensively now that Bill O'Brien is the offensive coordinator.
But even if they show meaningful improvement in all three phases, it might not result in many wins. The primary reason for that is their schedule, which, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, is the hardest of any NFL team.
The first four games are particularly challenging. The Patriots host the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1 and a very good Miami Dolphins team in Week 2. New England then goes on the road to play the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets in Week 3 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4.
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The most common win total for the Patriots at sportsbooks is over/under 7.5 wins. In the latest episode of the Next Pats Podcast, our Patriots insider Phil Perry was joined by NBC Sports Boston on-air host Tom Giles and producer Rob Snyder to discuss New England's win total and the team's challenging schedule.
"If you go by game-by-game down their schedule, the Patriots are favored in three of their 17 games. They are favored in three of their 17 games," Giles explained. "Now, all the lines are pretty small. They're all within a touchdown. If I'm betting the Patriots, you talked about (the win total) in some places at 6.5, some places it's 7.5 and everything's juiced to that seven number. And I sort of agree with that. I think that's right. I think that market is right.
"They feel like a seven-win team. If you want to, you can bet the Patriots to win seven games at +600. That means they have to win exactly seven games. But that would be the only way I would bet on this team, because the schedule is so challenging. It's the hardest schedule in the NFL. They could be better than they were a year ago and end up at 7-10, and you could still, at the end of the day, feel OK about what you saw."
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Perry actually is taking the over on 7.5 wins for the Patriots.
"I feel like I have to go (over) with the Patriots because I just did my game-by-game projections and I had them going 9-8," Perry said.
In those game-by-game projections -- which you can read by clicking here -- Perry predicts the Patriots start out 1-3 and 3-5 but finish with six wins in their final nine games.
The Patriots won 10 or more games in 17 consecutive seasons from 2003 through 2019. But since Tom Brady left before the 2020 campaign, the Patriots have failed to win double-digit games in each of the last three years.
Hitting the 10-win mark in 2023 would be a significant accomplishment for head coach Bill Belichick and his team given the brutal schedule it has coming up.
Also in this episode: Perry, Giles and Snyder examine the Patriots' schedule, make their NFL MVP picks and preview Patriots-Eagles. Later in the pod, The Athletic's Dane Brugler joins to talk about Week 1 of the college football season.