NFL Picks Contest

NBC Sports Boston's Week 9 picks: Fade the favored Pats vs. Commanders?

The Patriots are getting three points against Washington despite their 2-6 record.

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We've got more movement atop the leaderboard!

Ted Johnson jumps back in front after a 2-1 week, but he's not alone. John Tomase's perfect Week 8 gives him a share of the lead, as it appears his full-time fade of the Patriots is working out pretty well. Amina Smith remains just a half point back.

Here's a look at the current standings: 

Let's get to this week's picks:

Week 9 Trends

Patriots favored

As always, we start with the Patriots, who are 3-point favorites at home despite losing top wide receiver Kendrick Bourne. New England is just 2-6 ATS, which is tied for 30th in the NFL.

It's just the third time the Patriots have been favored this season. They covered in a win over the Jets in Week 3 and got absolutely embarrassed as home favorites in Week 5 versus the Saints.

Meanwhile, the Commanders come in at 3-4-1 ATS. Overall, they've lost five of their last six games. We have just TWO bets on this game with both Phil Perry and Tomase (obviously) taking Washington +3.

Fly, Eagles, Fly

The Eagles have been favored in every single game this season and that's not changing this week against Dallas.  Philadelphia (4-2-2 ATS) is a 3-point favorite at home. They've covered every game as a favorite of -5.5 or less.

As for the Cowboys (5-2 ATS), they're underdogs for just the second time this season. Their first shot at an upset didn't go so well in a 42-10 loss to San Francisco. Still, Dak Prescott's ATS numbers against the NFC East have been excellent throughout his career.

That's not doing anything to move our group off of Philly. Eagles get four backers, Cowboys get none. 

Chiefs, Bengals ... Jets?

That's right. The Chiefs (-2 vs MIA), Bengals (-2 vs BUF) and Jets (+3.5 vs LAC) are all getting lopsided action from our group.

Kansas City is looking to bounce-back from the Patrick Mahomes "flu game" loss in Denver, while the Bengals look like they're starting to hit their stride after a win in San Francisco. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off one of the ugliest games of the year -- an OT win over the Giants that featured 24 punts. But it was also the Jets' third straight win - a pleasant surprise.

As for the Chargers? They've been one of the league's biggest disappointments. Three bets each on KC, CIN and NYJ and zero opposition.

Buncha squares

Overall, our group is taking 24 home teams and just six road teams. We've also got 22 bets on favorites and just eight on underdogs (and three of those are on the freaking Jets). 

Games we're too afraid to touch

  • TB +2.5 at HOU
  • LAR +3.5 at GB
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