We've got a lot of variety across the board for Week 3. But first, a quick look back at how things went down in Week 2.
If it weren't for Deshaun Watson falling apart and giving the Steelers the game at the end of "Monday Night Football", Ted Johnson would still be perfect. Alas, he goes 2-1 for the week and sits a half-point ahead of Phil Perry, so the Breakdown Boys remain atop the standings heading into Week 3.
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Michael Holley put together a perfect week picking the Dolphins, Steelers and Rams. Speaking of the Rams, Sean McVay's decision to kick a FG as time expired with his team down by 10 provided a very bad beat for a few of us, but I digress...
Let's get to this week's picks:
Week 3 Trends
Hometown optimism
For the first time this year, the Patriots are favored. And for the first time this year, we've got more bets on them (three) than against (two). The preseason lookahead line was NYJ -4.5, but when Aaron Rodgers was lost for the season, the line flipped in New England's favor. It has since lived between -2 and -3.
Going back to last year, the Patriots have lost six straight games against the spread. But they've owned Zach Wilson. The Patriots aren't just 4-0 against Wilson and Robert Saleh's Jets. They're also 4-0 ATS.
MORE PATRIOTS COVERAGE
Backing double-digit favorites
Both Dallas and Kansas City are heavy favorites this week, with the Cowboys -12.5 on the road at Arizona and the Chiefs -12.5 at home against the Bears. We've got two bets each on the favorites, while no one is picking up the points.
Dak Prescott has actually been good in this spot, feasting on bad competition, while the Chiefs have struggled a bit covering double-digit spreads (12-11-1 ATS since 2018).
Other one-sided action
The Bills, Titans, Packers (always with the Packers...) and Eagles all got two picks with no opposition. And the favorites are getting a lot of love (maybe too much?).
Of the 30 total picks, 21 are on favorites and only nine are on the underdogs. FWIW, underdogs were 10-5-1 ATS last year in Week 3.
Two games we were too afraid to touch
- ATL +3 at DET
- CAR +6.5 at SEA