The New England Patriots have won four of their last five games and vaulted into the AFC's final Wild Card spot on Sunday thanks to some favorable Week 10 results.
But keeping that spot will be a tall task.
Six of the Patriots' final eight games are against teams with winning records, starting with Sunday's rematch with the 6-3 New York Jets. They visit 8-1 Minnesota Vikings the following week (on Thanksgiving night) and play three of their last eight games against the AFC East-leading Miami Dolphins (Week 17) and Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills (Week 13 and Week 18).
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If you watched New England's offense manage just one touchdown drive longer than two yards in Weeks 8 and 9 combined, you're probably dubious about the Patriots' ability to win at least four of their final eight games and squeak into the postseason.
But what do the projections say? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the final eight weeks of the regular season in addition to the playoffs to predict how the 2022 NFL season will play out. From an encouraging Patriots result to a surprise Super Bowl champion, the results are interesting, to say the least.
New England Patriots
Patriots' post-bye results
First, the good news. Unlike the past two seasons, the Patriots finish relatively strong in Strat-O-Matic's simulation.
New England completes its sweep of the New York Jets with a 31-10 thumping in Week 11 and bounces back from a Thanksgiving loss to the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings to upset the Buffalo Bills at home on Thursday Night Football.
That victory is the beginning of a four-game winning streak that moves the Patriots to 10-5 entering Week 17. Back-to-back losses to the Miami Dolphins and Bills drop them to 10-7, but that's still good enough for a second consecutive playoff berth. More on that Wild Card loss to the Tennessee Titans shortly.
Final AFC East standings
The AFC East makes its case for the best division in football in this simulation. The Dolphins and Bills finish tied for the second-best record in the AFC at 12-5, with Miami winning the tiebreaker to capture its first division crown since 2008.
New England needs all 10 of its wins to edge the Jets, who finish at 9-8. Those two wins over New York prove crucial in the Patriots reaching the playoffs and avoiding a last-place finish in a loaded division.
Playing out the 2022 postseason
While Patriots owner Robert Kraft would be pleased to see his team reach the postseason, he wouldn't enjoy watching Bill Belichick's club suffer another lopsided Wild Card loss, this time a 27-10 defeat to Mike Vrabel's Titans.
If there's any consolation, Strat-O-Matic has Tennessee rolling all the way to the Super Bowl, as the Cincinnati Bengals knock off the No. 1 seed Kansas City Chiefs before falling to the Titans in the AFC Championship Game.
The Super Bowl winner comes from the other conference, however. The Vikings finish 14-3 to edge the Philadelphia Eagles as the NFC's top seed, then dispatch the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants before taking down the Titans to win their first Super Bowl in franchise history.
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The Patriots have the NFL's fourth-toughest schedule down the stretch and have looked abysmal on offense in their last two games. While first-round exits aren't typically cause for celebration in New England, a 10-7 record and a Wild Card berth seem like a positive result for a team that should have more resources to spend to further improve the roster this offseason.