The standard disclaimer on stocks -- "Past performance is no guarantee of future results" -- applies to whatever's going on with the Red Sox and Blue Jays.
Based on last year, the Red Sox should be trailing Toronto about 10 games right now. They went 3-16 vs. their tormentors from the north, and had that trend continued, they'd have traded everybody at Tuesday's deadline, because they'd be hopelessly out of contention.
Instead, they're just two games out of the final wild card spot with a golden opportunity this weekend to leapfrog the Jays if they can just continue their improbable dominance of many a prognosticator's preseason World Series pick.
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The squads have squared off seven times this year, and the Red Sox have won them all. They swept a four-game set at Fenway in early May as part of an eight-game winning streak, and then they went to Toronto on June 30 and swept three games to start the run that has produced baseball's best record ever since (17-9).
The Red Sox get the Jays at a precarious time, however -- for both teams. Toronto just placed All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette on the injured list with knee inflammation, which is actually a relief after he pulled up lame running the bases on Monday with what initially looked like a serious injury.
The Jays at least had time to react before the trade deadline, adding former All-Star Paul DeJong from the Cardinals. That was their second deal with St. Louis, following the acquisition of flamethrowing reliever Jordan Hicks to replace injured closer Jordan Romano, who's out with a bad back.
Boston's tenuous situation traces to the deadline as well, although the issue in Chaim Bloom's case was a lack of action. The Red Sox squeaked in one trade under the wire, and it was for buy-low candidate Luis Urias, a one-time slugging Brewers second baseman who had been demoted to Triple-A after hitting just .145 this year.
The Red Sox failed to bolster their bullpen or starting rotation, content instead to wait for injured starters Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, and Garrett Whitlock, as well as shortstop Trevor Story.
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They just lost two of three in Seattle and return home with four losses in their last five games. Given their various August swoons since 2019 -- they lost eight straight around the 2019 deadline, then went 12-16 in 2021 and 2022 -- how they respond to the front office's lack of faith could go a long way in determining their playoff fate.
As it is, the AL East law of averages usually evens out one-sided records. While last year's Jays were an exception, look no further than the 2021 Red Sox for an example of a team that dominated a division rival for half season before the scales sought equilibrium. Those Sox started 7-0 vs. the Yankees and ended up 10-9, barely holding on to claim the tie-breaker that allowed them to host New York in the wild card game before a spirited run to the American League Championship Series.
Maintaining such a lopsided record vs. the Jays won't be easy, even without Bichette, who has tormented them to the tune of a .357 average and 1.062 OPS. The Jays are otherwise hitting just .221 vs. Red Sox pitching, with a pair of Canadians – James Paxton and Nick Pivetta – combining to allow only four runs in 17.2 innings.
It's worth noting, however, that as hot as the Red Sox have been for the last month, the Blue Jays have maintained pace. Since suffering another Red Sox sweep, Toronto is 15-10, which actually rates half a game better than Boston's 14-9.
With so much on the line this weekend, the Red Sox must hope they can maintain their mastery of Toronto, but they shouldn't be lulled into believing the success of May and July will automatically carry over to August.