2022 MLB season simulation: How Red Sox fare in grueling AL East race


The Boston Red Sox begin their 2022 MLB season Friday afternoon against the archrival New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

Expectations are pretty high for the Red Sox after they got within two victories of reaching the World Series last season. 

What can we expect from the Sox this year?

Our friends at Strat-O-Matic simulated the 2022 regular season and postseason, and the results are not great for the Red Sox.

Here's a recap of the simulation.

AL East Standings

The American League East likely will be the most competitive division in baseball with every team except the Baltimore Orioles having a legit chance to either finish in first place or secure one of the wild card spots.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, this means their path back to the postseason will be pretty tough, and that was evident in our simulation.

Boston finishes fourth in the AL East with a 81-81 record and fails to qualify for the playoffs as a result.

The Yankees claim their first division crown since 2019 despite winning less than 90 games in a full season for the first time since 2016. The Toronto Blue Jays also clinch a wild card spot.

Neither team reaches the World Series, though. The American League Central champion Minnesota Twins won the pennant before losing to the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 7 of the World Series.

Notable Player Performances

Even though the Red Sox miss the playoffs in this simulation, there were several encouraging individual performances.

Third baseman Rafael Devers has an excellent year at the plate, blasting a career-high 43 home runs along with 96 RBI and a .315 batting average. His fantastic season comes at a good time with free agency on the horizon for him after the 2023 campaign.

J.D. Martinez also provides plenty of offense with a .304 average, 25 homers and 98 RBI. Xander Bogaerts disappoints with a .278 average and just 17 home runs and 73 RBI over 158 games. Trevor Story provides plenty of power during his first season in Boston. He hits 36 home runs with 104 RBI and 161 hits overall. He also struck out 143 times in the simulation.

Red Sox fans also get their first look at top prospect Triston Casas in the major leagues. He hits five homers with 18 RBI and 11 walks in 42 games.

Chris Sale returns from injury and makes 19 starts in the simulation. He posts a 7-5 record with a respectable 3.26 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi is Boston's top starter with a 15-9 record and a 3.98 ERA. Matt Barnes leads the Red Sox with 15 saves, but he also finishes with a 3.78 ERA and 33 walks in 62 innings.

One interesting pitching outcome from the simulation was Garrett Whitlock making eight starts. He actually has a pretty strong 2022 season, posting a 6-5 record, a 3.34 ERA and 95 strikeouts in 97 innings.

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