At first glance, you might think Pierre-Luc Dubois would be a fantastic player for the Boston Bruins to target on the NHL trade market this offseason.
He's a legit top-six center who could take the place of Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci long term. The Bruins don't have any qualified candidates internally to fill Bergeron's No. 1 center spot given their weak prospect pool. Dubois hasn't totally lived up to expectations as a former No. 3 overall pick, but he has been a solid player for several years with four 20-goal seasons and a career-high 63 points (27 goals, 36 assists) with the Winnipeg Jets this past season.
His time in Winnipeg appears to be winding down after The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun reported last week that the 24-year-old center's camp has "let the Jets know that Dubois won’t re-sign with them this summer and are hoping the sides can work together to facilitate a trade that works for everyone."
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Despite the fit on paper, there are a few reasons why it doesn't make sense for the B's to pursue Dubois.
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The first is cost. Arpon Basu and Marc Antoine Godin of The Athletic reported last week that Dubois "is likely seeking a contract in the $9 million a year range." A $9 million salary cap hit or higher would make Dubois the third-highest player on the B's behind right wing David Pastrnak ($11.25 million) and defenseman Charlie McAvoy ($9.5 million).
Dubois has not played like a $9 million-type of player. He's never produced offensively at a point-per-game rate or better for a full season. He has never scored 30-plus goals or dished out 40-plus assists. He's never reached the 70-point mark, either. If you look at the 11 centers who will have a $9 million cap hit or higher next season, seven of them posted 70-plus points in 2022-23. One who didn't, Jack Eichel, had 66 points in 67 games coming off an injury-plagued 2021-22 and made huge strides defensively. Another center in that group who didn't reach 70 points was Nicklas Backstrom, but he played in only 21 games due to injury.
Another concern about Dubois is the fact that he forced his way out of Columbus a few years ago and appears to be doing the same thing in Winnipeg. After he requested a trade in Columbus, his effort level and performance in the last five games he played for the Blue Jackets were abysmal, and led to then-head coach John Tortorella benching him twice in one week. Fast forward to this past season, and we saw Jets head coach Rick Bowness calling out his top players with scathing criticism after Winnipeg got destroyed by the Vegas Golden Knights in a five-game first-round series. Bowness said he was "disgusted" by the lack of pushback against the Knights. Again, not a good sign.
It's also been long-rumored that Dubois has interest in playing for his hometown Montreal Canadiens. Should the Bruins make a player a centerpiece of their team when he potentially has his eyes on their biggest rival?
The Bruins also don't have many good trade assets to make a deal with the Jets.
In order to acquire a player like Dubois, the Bruins might have to part with a top prospect such as Fabian Lysell or Mason Lohrei, plus other players/prospects and multiple picks. But the B's don't have any good draft picks to offer. They don't have a first-rounder until 2025 and no second-rounders until 2026. Most of the Bruins' players on the NHL roster who have trade value -- Taylor Hall, Matt Grzelcyk, Derek Forbort, Linus Ullmark -- don't really fit the Jets' timeline if Winnipeg undergoes a rebuild in the near future. Winnipeg would need top prospects and valuable draft picks in that scenario, and the Bruins can't offer that kind of package -- or at least not to the level that other teams can.
If the Bruins are going to part with a package of Jake DeBrusk, Lysell or Lohrei plus another prospect and draft picks, it needs to be for a better player than Dubois. Decimating an already-depleted prospect pool and draft pick cupboard for someone like Dubois, who is not elite offensively or defensively and wants to make $9 million a year, doesn't make sense for Boston.
Cap space also is a massive problem for the Bruins. They have less than $5 million of cap room with more than 10 of their own players about to hit free agency. Several of them, including Bergeron, Tyler Bertuzzi and Jeremy Swayman -- need to be re-signed. Even if the Bruins had the assets to acquire Dubois, how is his $9 million salary fitting in? And how would that impact the team's ability to bring back young, talented players such as Swayman and Trent Frederic?
So, if not Dubois, then who? If the Bruins want to make a trade for a top-six center, who's the ideal target?
Elias Lindholm of the Calgary Flames is a better fit for the B's than Dubois. Lindholm has averaged 27.8 goals over the last five seasons. He's one year removed from a 40-goal, 42-assist 2022-23 campaign. He is signed through next season with a $4.875 million cap hit -- far less than Dubois' reported $9 million ask. Lindholm isn't super young but still firmly in his prime at 28 years old. Lindholm finished second to Bergeron in Selke Trophy voting last year, too.
Dubois is a really good player and has a bright future as a top-six center. But given his good-but-not-great offensive production, lack of high-end defensive ability, high salary ask and previous red flags (multiple reported trade requests, etc.), the Bruins should look elsewhere for a No. 2 center.
It's not worth the risk.