The New England Patriots, at least on paper, are a better team than they were entering the 2022 NFL season.
The offense is more talented and deeper. Starting quarterback Mac Jones looks like a "way better" player, according to veteran safety Adrian Phillips. The running back depth chart is strong with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott leading the way. There's no true No. 1 wide receiver, but there's also plenty of talent and depth at that position, including a couple rookies -- Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte -- with intriguing potential. The tight end duo of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki is pretty good, too. And, of course, the defense is once again a quality unit and was bolstered in the offseason by multiple draft picks, including first-round cornerback Christian Gonzalez and second-round edge rusher Keion White.
The coaching staff was upgraded as well, most notably with the arrival of offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and offensive line coach Adrian Klemm.
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So, the Patriots should be a playoff team in the AFC, right?
Not so fast.
Oddsmakers aren't expecting a whole lot from the Patriots this season. Here are the over/under season win totals for the Patriots from various sportsbooks:
- Caesars: 7.5
- FanDuel: 7.5
- PointsBet: 7.5
Why such a low win total? A couple reasons.
New England Patriots
The first is that the AFC, and the AFC East division in particular, is loaded with quality teams. The AFC East is the best division in football and could send three teams to the playoffs.
Another reason for the Patriots' low win totals is their brutal schedule. New England's regular season schedule is the hardest in the league, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. In addition to six tough divisional matchups, the Patriots have to play the AFC West and NFC East divisions. Their first four games are against the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys. There's a real possibility New England starts out 0-4.
The Patriots play many of the league's top quarterbacks, too. That list includes Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen (twice), Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Derek Carr and Dak Prescott.
Not everyone is pessimistic about the Patriots' chances of reaching the playoffs, though. For example, Sports Illustrated NFL writer Conor Orr predicts the Patriots will finish 10-7 and win the division crown.
The Patriots, whether they win 10 games or five games, should at least be more competitive than they were last season. The offense should be noticeably better, and even if the defense takes a small step back, that group still has a ton of talent.
It's unrealistic to expect the Patriots to be a contender in the AFC this season. So, what should be the measure of success? The team's young players who could represent the next core need to take another step (or two) in their development. If that happens, 2023 will be a success for the Pats regardless of how many victories they earn.