The New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium on Sunday as they try to improve to 5-4 ahead of their bye week.
But first, it's time to dive into some of your mailbag questions. Let's get into it...
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Boston sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
Even eight games into the season, it's more than fair to look at this group and wonder who they are. Just as a reminder, here's what Belichick told us just before the season, acknowledging that it might not be until October that he knows what he has in his team.
"I don't think you really know where your team is until you get to about midseason," Belichick said back in August. "Mid-October, play five, six, seven games, match up against some different teams, see for real what your strengths and weaknesses are and your opponents as well."
Now that it's November, I followed up with him on that sentiment during his Wednesday presser.
"I know a lot more than I knew two months ago," he said. "For sure, yeah. Of course. I learn something every day, every week. So, we have a lot more under our belt. So, keep working to improve things all the time. Some things we're doing better. Been attacked by different teams in different ways. You learn a lot from that. It's a challenge every week."
New England Patriots
Based on what he knows now, what are the strengths of his group this year?
"Well, I mean this is really a matchup against the Colts," he said. "So how we did against somebody else may or may not even be relevant. I don't know. Right now, let's just focus on the Colts. But fundamentally we try to work on things that we need to work on that will make us better. Schematically, same thing. We've made some adjustments. Players, they've had to make some changes and adjustments, too. All for what we think will make us better."
Belichick said that going without Mac Jones for three weeks didn't necessarily derail the information-gathering process he has to go through to determine his team's identity.
"There's always changes," he explained. "We just talked about that. There's going to be some changes next week. Look every team has changes every week. Take a look at the injury reports. Everybody's got somebody on them. It's usually more than one. Guys on injured reserve. Things happen. Things change. It's the National Football League."
Next Pats Podcast: Patriots just skimming the surface on RPO package that could JUMPSTART Mac Jones | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
If Jones' injury doesn't impact the equation all that much, and if Belichick knows "a lot more" than he knew before the season... What can we assume that he knows?
Here's what we can say with some level of conviction, based on the numbers.
Offensively, they are a roller coaster. Calling them "high-variance" may not even begin to do them justice.
Some of the numbers are rough. The Patriots are the league's 24th-ranked team in terms of offensive DVOA, and they're 25th when it comes to passing offense. No team in the league has turned it over more (16).
But they're ninth in average yards per pass attempt, and they throw it down the field more than most teams with Jones behind center (8.6 air yards per attempt, which is ninth in the NFL). All that deep work has helped make them among the most explosive teams in the league, coming in at third in the NFL with 30 plays of 20 yards or more. But they're 20th in pass-blocking efficiency, per Pro Football Focus, so they aren't always up to the task when they have to protect for extended periods. And some of their down-the-field pass attempts have resulted in game-changing interceptions.
In the running game, the Patriots have an uber-talented back in Rhamondre Stevenson, but they have difficulty getting him going at times (2.2 yards before contact, 41st in the NFL) and the overall results have been below-average (4.3 yards per carry, 22nd). Situationally, they're very average on third down (39.8 percent, 19th) and they're one of the worst red-zone teams in the league (45.8 percent, 29th).
Schematically, it's hard to get a grip on where they stand, too. While the Patriots are a game-plan team, as they have been for years, that shouldn't preclude them from having an identity. They were a game-plan team in 2007, but their identity was as a spread-it-out, down-the-field attack. They were a game-plan team in 2018, but their identity eventually became that of a two-back, power-running team.
Now? They run some outside zone -- which they worked hard to incorporate this summer -- but it's not a heavy element of their week-to-week plan. They run some RPOs -- more last week than ever before -- but it's not yet exactly a foundational element of who they are. They run some two tight end sets, but it's not what they major in. They've been reluctant, seemingly, to run much play-action passing with Jones behind center. They possess a vertical passing game, but the results there have been iffy.
In a new scheme under Belichick, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, it still feels like they're trying to settle on who they are.
"I think every week there's a different game plan, which is good," Jones said Wednesday. "That's how we've been around here. We try to attack defenses. And with our defense, they try to attack their offense. You always have little things you want to do extra or differently in a certain week. But, for the most part, we know what we want to do. We want to improve on the areas where we weren't good, whether it was last week or the past couple games and just improve. Definitely a lot of things to improve on. We're going to fight to do that."
Cassel: Three keys to unlocking Mac Jones in QB's second season
Some of where they lack offensively has been helped by what they can do on special teams. The Patriots have a dependable kicker, and they're best in the league in average starting field position (32.1 yard line), per Football Outsiders. That's huge for them.
But they hurt themselves on a regular basis with penalties, relative to the performance of their opponents, ranking third-worst in net penalty count (-13) and seventh-worst in net penalty yardage (-72). They're also seventh in the league in pre-snap penalties.
For a team that has long said it wants to be "smart, tough and dependable" under Belichick, they've fallen short to this point in the season on a couple of those fronts offensively.
Defensively, meanwhile, although they've struggled against designed quarterback running schemes -- particularly apparent in losses to the Bears and Ravens -- they've shown real promise in key areas.
No team has taken the ball away more than the Patriots (16), which has boosted their field-position numbers. They're 12th in the NFL in points allowed, buoyed in part by the fact that their pass-rush has them ranked fifth in the league in sacks. Even when pass-rushers don't get to the quarterback, they've pressured passers into bad decisions that have led to the Patriots pumping up their turnover numbers.
"I don't know how many interceptions we'd have," Devin McCourty said Wednesday, "without a guy in the quarterback's face."
They're sixth in DVOA defensively, and much more effective against the pass (fifth) than the run (27th), which in today's NFL makes them better in the more important facet. Situationally, they're average in the red zone (56 percent touchdowns, 17th) and they've had a hard time on third down (43.4 percent conversions, fifth-worst). But the work they've done bothering quarterbacks and generating turnovers has helped keep them in games.
If this is who the Patriots are -- an opportunistic defense helping along an offense that tends to shoot itself in the foot -- it won't be enough to make them serious contenders come January. But their saving grace is that there is time for them to change course, even if they didn't make any additions at the deadline to help them in that regard...
My first thought is this means the Patriots couldn't find a taker for Nelson Agholor, who made the most sense as a candidate to be traded. I wouldn't read into the team's inactivity as Belichick showing support for the roster as currently constructed. He said as much Wednesday: "Well we're always looking to improve. We added a couple practice squad players this week. So, it would be hard for me to say there wouldn't be any roster changes between now and the end of the year. I think that would be a stretch, but I don't know, who knows? We’ll see how it goes."
They're hard to find, Trygve. There's a reason those guys are so highly coveted in the draft. There's a reason they're so highly paid if they get to the open market. There's a reason they command massive asking prices in trades. Ain't many humans on the planet who can mirror the freakish athletes playing on the edge these days.
Just look at the 2022 draft: three defensive ends were taken in the top-five picks, and three offensive tackles went in the top 10; five total at each position were taken in the first round. Because the Patriots took a tackle a few years ago in the first round and he never ended up turning into a franchise cornerstone? That's why they still need help there. They're actually fortunate in some respects since Trent Brown has worked out the way he has.
They didn't have to give up much to get him, and when he's right he's among the best in the league. But right tackle has been a problem all year, and there don't seem to be many obvious solutions on the horizon.
I would give it a shot, John, so long as Yodny Cajuste is in good condition. Marcus Cannon was a needed pickup when they acquired him, but these last couple of weeks, he's been beaten by better athletes on the edge. He led the team in pressures allowed Sunday in Jersey. Based on how Ted Johnson described the pattern he identified on "The Breakdown" this week, maybe Cannon's issues are due to foot quickness. If Cannon knows he needs to aggressively get out of his stance and almost over do it in order to beat his man to the edge, that may make him susceptible to inside moves.
He was beaten to the inside on Monday Night Football when working on Robert Quinn, and it happened Sunday against John Franklin-Myers (on the roughing-the-passer call that may have saved the game for the Patriots). Cajuste won't be a panacea for that position. He only played in two games last year and allowed a pressure every nine dropbacks. Still, if he's physically right, and if he's holding up in practice, maybe the Patriots should give him a go. They could still use Cannon as an extra blocker in the run game, where he's been used extensively as a blocking tight end of late.
Here's how you know we've got the best (and in some ways sickest, let's be real) readers on the Internet. Offensive line questions for days. But that's where the problems are for this Patriots team. You all know it. They know it, too. They wouldn't have made the move to bring in Cannon in the first place if they didn't agree with you. Right now, they rank 20th in the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency, according to Pro Football Focus. Not among the dregs of the league, by any means, but not good enough for where they want to be, either.
Moving Mike Onwenu is an option for them. He's played plenty of right tackle for them before, and it's gone well enough to expect that that will continue. But then what do you do at right guard? That's been one of the few spots along the line that hasn't gone through a rough patch this season. Onwenu has been tremendous.
Patriots Talk Podcast: Chris Long goes deep on time with Patriots and life in general | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
Should he be uprooted in order to ameliorate the situation at one position just to make another worse? When David Andrews returns from his concussion, James Ferentz may be the top interior flex player. So is a line of Brown, Cole Strange, Andrews, Ferentz and Onwenu better than a line of Brown, Strange, Andrews, Onwenu and Cannon (or Isaiah Wynn, or Cajuste)? That's what Bill Belichick has to consider as he looks for answers up front.
It's also worth wondering if Isaiah Wynn could play right guard. He played left guard against the Jets, and we know he's played left and right tackle, with varying degrees of success. Would moving Onwenu to right tackle and then kicking Wynn to right guard -- essentially swapping your Week 1 starters at those positions -- make the Patriots better? Wynn practiced last week as a backup left guard, but it's unclear at this point how much work he's seen on the right side along the interior. We'll do some digging...
Let the o-line questions roll, people! Peter, hard to know how things will look come the offseason, but here's a list of players scheduled to hit free agency at offensive tackle (aside from Wynn and Cajuste), who could end up being pricey targets for their next teams: Orlando Brown, Jack Conklin, Kelvin Beachum, Trey Pipkins, Jawaan Taylor, Yosh Nijman, Cam Fleming, Mike McGlinchey and Elgton Jenkins. Of that group, the only three who have graded as top-50 tackles, according to PFF? Conklin (18th), Taylor (23rd) and Nijman (29th).
I think so, QS. Their tight-ends aren't exactly difference-makers as run-blockers -- neither Hunter Henry nor Jonnu Smith rank inside the top-50 tight ends in that category -- and that's the position the Patriots wanted to lean on more this year as they transitioned away from using a fullback.
Additionally, they're just 20th in rushing DVOA, per Football Outsiders. They clearly have a talented back in Rhamondre Stevenson. He gets what's available to him and more.
For stretches of this season, though, there hasn't been much made available to him in terms of space prior to being contacted. Keep in mind, Stevenson himself has said he prefers to operate without a fullback. So maybe if you were to drop another player into the backfield with Stevenson, he wouldn't be the back he's been this year. But there's clear room for improvement in the running game when it comes to the blocking Stevenson gets, and I wonder how a fullback may help things.
He ain't going anywhere for a while, according to Mark Davis. But I'd have to think that the light would always be on for McDaniels here, even though the offense has transitioned sharply away from a system that McDaniels helped build up over two decades.
I get it, Brian. It's been a weird few weeks for everyone. Bye week is just around the corner, my friend.
All of them? As we've laid out, the offensive line would still be an issue. But it'd help, no question. Having a bail-out player like that changes an offense. A player like that changes how a defense plays and opens things up for others. A player like that opens things up for the running game. He's a force multiplier.
While DeVante Parker (and perhaps Tyquan Thornton if Parker misses time with a knee injury) can help them threaten areas of the field they couldn't threaten last year, he's still not on the level of the players you mention there. With Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor no longer under contract after this season, I'd expect the Patriots to continue to invest there.
Talent at that position is more widespread than ever so perhaps they can run into a No. 1 without taking one where someone like Ja'Marr Chase was taken (No. 5 overall, 2021).
Hard to know, CP. Didn't necessarily look like communication issues the other day. Just a tough physical matchup for the rookie.
The Patriots should win this one somewhat handily, in my opinion. But I felt the same way a couple of weeks ago when Chicago came to town. Preview, with a score prediction, coming later this week.
Really bad. I don't see it happening. I believe they made a choice to roll with Jones as their starter. That said, if the turnovers come in waves early on, I'd never say never with Belichick. He can't stand giveaways, which is kind of why we're at this point in the first place, with Patriots fans wondering whether or not the team's starter could get benched.
Agholor. He played 19 snaps to Bourne's 54 against the Jets.
How the turn tables, Cyrus.