MIAMI GARDENS -- Even if you're like me and you're reluctant to pick the Patriots to win this game, you'd still have to acknowledge that they have a shot.
That's based on what they did last week against the Bills, playing with a lead, exhibiting a balanced offense, and playing their typically-steady defense to beat a more-than-a-touchdown favorite and division rival.
Can they do the same thing on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium? Sure.
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The Dolphins (5-2) are fast. They're explosive. They're run by one of the most creative offensive minds in the league. But they're still a tad unproven.
Here's a list of DVOA ranks of the defenses they've beaten this year: 29th (Chargers), 17th (Patriots), 32nd (Broncos), 23rd (Giants) and 30th (Panthers). Against better defenses -- Bills, 13th; Eagles, 10th -- they've been beaten.
Now, part of the reason those low DVOA ranks sit where they do is because... the Dolphins have beaten them. It's not a perfect measure of how those units play against non-Dolphins opponents. But it's one bit of evidence that suggests they aren't an alien offensive juggernaut sent from another dimension to eviscerate everything in their path.
If the Patriots defense can stand up and hold its ground, if offensively they can be balanced, they'll have a chance. I may not be picking them -- there's a breadth of evidence this season to suggest the Patriots will struggle to avoid mistakes and win, and they've lost three straight here in Miami -- but it doesn't mean the window to 3-5 isn't cracked open.
Let's get to the matchups preview...
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Matchup to win the first half
Patriots run game vs. Miami defense
The Patriots didn’t light the world on fire with their work on the ground a week ago. They averaged a good-not-great 4.0 yards per carry. They had 11 carries that went for two yards or fewer. But they stuck with it. They were a threat in that regard. And they were able to be because they played with the lead.
If they’re able to generate similar circumstances for themselves against a Miami defense that’s 27th in success rate allowed and without one of its best players in safety Jevon Holland (concussion) — maybe more motion from the Patriots this week without Holland on the back end as a defensive traffic cop? — then Patriots backs should have room to operate. The Dolphins are 27th in the NFL in EPA allowed per rush.
Matchup that may surprise you
Jalen Ramsey vs. Demario "Pop" Douglas
Will we actually see Ramsey and Douglas match up consistently in the slot on Sunday (Douglas has played over 86 percent of his snaps inside this year)? Will Ramsey play more safety with Holland out? Will he play much at all in his first game action of the season? Will Douglas perhaps play a less-than-full-time role with seven receivers on New England’s active roster?
All fair questions. But if they do align across from one another, Douglas’ quickness and elusiveness with the ball in his hands would seem to be difficult to contend with when you haven’t played in a competitive situation since last season as Ramsey has. (Per Sports Info Solutions, among receivers, Douglas has the fourth-best forced-missed-tackle percentage in the league, behind only San Francisco's Deebo Samuel, Kansas City's Kadarius Toney and Houston's Nico Collins.) Ramsey suffered a knee injury at the start of camp that has held him out until Sunday.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Patriots defensive front vs. Dolphins offensive line
Against stout defensive fronts, the Dolphins have had issues. Philadelphia’s is arguably the best defensive line in the league, and by dominating the line of scrimmage with just four players, the Eagles were able to put a cap on explosive Miami shots with extra defenders in coverage. The Bills — prior to being hampered up front by injuries — were able to do something similar.
The Patriots believe they have one of the best defensive fronts in the league, though they’re without their best player up there in Matthew Judon. Still, Christian Barmore is playing some of the best football of his young career. Davon Godchaux is coming off one of his best games as a Patriot — both as a run-stuffer and pass-rusher. Anfernee Jennings has been stout on the edge on early downs in Judon’s absence, and Deatrich Wise has provided a spark early in games across situations.
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The Patriots allowed a whopping 145 yards on the ground on 30 carries (4.8 per attempt) the last time they saw the Dolphins. Yet they’re still the top rush defense in football in terms of yards allowed per carry (3.4). If they can get closer to that average with just four down linemen than they were in Week 2, that could make Miami one-dimensional and force Tua Tagovailoa to force the ball into tight windows against seven in coverage.
Helping the Patriots front is that the Dolphins offensive line is banged up.
Starting center Connor Williams may play, but he's been limited with a groin injury that could have Liam Eichenberg starting at center for the fourth-straight game.
Former Patriots tackle Isaiah Wynn -- a starter at guard in Miami -- was placed on injured reserve this week. His mid-game replacement last week, Lester Cotton, struggled.
Left tackle Terron Armstead is out, meaning Kendall Lamm will likely continue to start at left tackle. Out of 76 qualifiers, he's the 56th-highest graded run-blocking tackle in football this year, per Pro Football Focus.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Tyreek Hill vs. Patriots zone coverage
If the Patriots want to commit numbers to their secondary in order to get over the top of vertical routes or cut crossers, that's not a bad plan. But Tyreek Hill will, in all likelihood, still get his. Among receivers with at least five targets against Cover 2 this season, he's second in yards per route run (4.3).
Against Cover 3, Hill has been a bit more manageable. That coverage stresses the defense in a different way with only one deep defender in the middle of the field to help corners, but if the Patriots want to replicate what the Eagles did in Week 7 and play Cover 3 on third down, that may have some merit. Hill is 13th in the league in yards per route run against Cover 3 (3.5), and his yards per target (7.3) is far less than his average across all over coverages (13.6).
Whatever coverage they choose, the Patriots will have to be better prepared for the Miami "out" motion (or "cheat" motion, as Kyle Shanahan calls it) where a receiver motions from a wing position toward the closest sideline right before the snap. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick's group had a heckuva time trying to stop that in Week 2, often capping the vertical portion of that play, but letting the underneath option -- open space in the hook-to-curl area -- pick them apart.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Mac Jones vs. Vic Fangio
The Patriots have had six different starting offensive line combinations in their first seven games this season, so if they can get their Week 7 unit on the field for Week 8, that would be a step in the right direction. Against the Bills, with Mike Onwenu at right tackle, they allowed just one sack and helped Jones have one of the best games of his young career.
Can Jones get the same protection this weekend against a more imposing pass-rush unit that should feature young standout Jaelen Phillips (injured in Week 2)? Even if he wants to have the ball out in 2.2 seconds -- as he did against the Bills, the fastest release time in the league that week -- in order to take some pressure of his blockers, Miami's sage defensive coordinator could thwart that plan by changing the pre-snap picture on Jones and causing him to second-guess what he's seeing.
If Fangio and his pre-snap two-high safety looks can get Jones to hesitate, and if that causes Jones to start to look down at the rushers coming his way -- something he's acknowledged he's done too much this season -- then this game could go sideways on the Patriots offense. They need to play a poised brand of football in order to have a shot to win.