NFL Picks Contest

NBC Sports Boston's Week 6 picks: Is history against Pats in Vegas?

One eye-opening trend doesn't favor the Patriots this weekend.

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We've got movement atop the standings! Both Amina Smith and Trenni Casey enjoyed perfect 3-0 marks in Week 5.

Amina reclaims the top spot at 10-5 for the year, while Trenni has made a meteoric rise to second place by going 7-2 over the last three weeks following a 2-4 start to the year.

The biggest loser in Week 5? Buffalo backers. And we had six of them.

Here's a look at the current standings: 

Let's get to this week's picks:

Week 6 Trends

Vegas reunion

I guess we'll start with the Patriots. They're now 1-4 ATS, which is one of the worst marks in the NFL. Only the Broncos, Giants and Panthers are worse against the spread.

To make matters worse, New England is +3 heading into Las Vegas. That's bad news because Mac Jones is now 3-13 ATS as an underdog in his career, including TWELVE straight losses as a dog.

Three members of our crew are going with the Raiders while Michael Holley very bravely is our lone rep standing with the Patriots. (And he thinks they can win outright! +120 on the moneyline).

Gold rush

The 49ers were as low as -6.5 early in the week, but inched through the key number of seven before jumping to -10 with the news that Deshaun Watson will not be playing for Cleveland.

Brock Purdy is just 2-3 ATS on the road in his young career, but San Fran has been a wagon and is also 4-1 ATS so far this year. Our crew has SIX bets on the Niners and zero backers of the Browns.

Big fish

The Dolphins (4-1 ATS) are double-digit favorites again this week after handling the Giants in Week 5. Miami sits at -13.5 as they host the winless Panthers.

It's the first time in nearly 30 years that Miami is a double-digit favorite in consecutive games. And we've got more lopsided support for this matchup with five Dolphins backers and zero confidence in Carolina.

Other lopsided action

Detroit (4-1 ATS) is a 3-point favorite at Tampa Bay. Jared Goff continues to be the most profitable QB over the last 6-plus years. We've got three backers on the Lions, including Phil Perry, who is backing Detroit for the fourth time this year.

Cincinnati finally covered for the first time in Week 5 when they handled Arizona. They're 3-point favorites at home against Seattle. We've got four backers on Burrow's Bengals while Trenni holds the wall with the Seahawks at +3.

Four games we were too afraid to touch

  • DEN +10.5 AT KC
  • NO -1.5 AT HOU
  • ARI +7 AT LAR
  • DAL -2 AT LAC
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