The New England Patriots are expected to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC in 2023 after upgrading their roster and coaching staff during the offseason.
There's one problem, though.
Many of their rivals in the AFC East, and the conference as a whole, also improved in the offseason. Reaching the playoffs in a loaded AFC is going to be a difficult challenge, which is probably why oddsmakers don't like the Patriots' chances of accomplishing that goal. DraftKings Sportsbook has given the Patriots +250 odds to secure a postseason berth.
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ESPN released its preseason 2023 NFL power rankings Monday morning. The Patriots come in at No. 17, putting them (just barely) in the bottom half of the league hierarchy.
They also rank the lowest of the four AFC East franchises.
5. Buffalo Bills
6. Miami Dolphins
13. New York Jets
17. New England Patriots
These rankings also included who's on the hot seat for each of the league's 32 clubs, and for the Patriots that was starting quarterback Mac Jones.
"Jones' production dipped in 2022 -- and he missed three games with injury -- after an impressive rookie season, and this is his year to prove that the decline wasn't as much about him as the changes around him (e.g. Bill Belichick revamping the offense and assigning longtime defensive coach Matt Patricia to carry out his vision)," ESPN's Mike Reiss wrote. "The Patriots have to decide in May whether they will pick up Jones' fifth-year option for 2025, which further contributes to this being a pivotal year for him."
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Jones has the ability to be a very good quarterback. We saw that potential throughout his 2021 rookie campaign when he helped lead New England to a 10-7 record and a wild card playoff berth.
It's hard to picture the Patriots reaching the postseason if Jones doesn't improve his performance by a couple levels in 2023. The division and the conference are loaded with top-tier quarterbacks and high-scoring offenses. The Patriots' schedule is among the hardest in the league, and one of the primary reasons why is the abundance of quality quarterbacks they have to face. The list includes Josh Allen (twice), Aaron Rodgers (twice), Tua Tagovailoa (twice), Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Herbert.
The Patriots have a really good defense, but they won't win nine or more games by keeping opponents under 20 points consistently. The offense will have to do its part and score a couple points more than the 21.2 per game it averaged last season. Jones will shoulder much of the burden in that regard.