The Boston Red Sox have won 10 of their last 12 games and own the sixth-best record in the American League. They are playing well and finally starting to feast on inferior competition after struggling against bad teams earlier in the season.
And yet, their odds of reaching the 2023 MLB playoffs are still pretty low.
Here's a look at the odds (in percentages) to make the postseason for each American League East team, per FanGraphs' predictive model:
The AL East is the only division in baseball where every team is above the .500 mark. In fact, the AL East made history this weekend with all five teams reaching 50-plus wins in fewer than 95 games.
It's unlucky for the Red Sox that they play in such a tough division. Technically they are in last place, but they are not a real last place team. If the Sox played in the AL Central, they'd be in first place.
The next few weeks will be fascinating for the franchise. Boston has a really good opportunity to keep making up ground in the playoff race with series against the last-place Oakland Athletics and a struggling New York Mets team this week.
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If the Red Sox are just a couple games out of a wild card spot when the Aug. 1 trade deadline arrives, will Chaim Bloom and the front office be buyers and look to upgrade the roster?
The chances of the Red Sox making a major move and parting with elite prospects seem low, but a few moves around the edges -- another decent starting pitcher, perhaps? -- could make a huge difference for this team during what promises to be a very competitive wild card chase in September.