Our friends at Strat-O-Matic are simulating the NBA postseason. Will the C’s beat the defending champs in the Finals?
The stage is set for a playoff rematch between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
The Eastern Conference rivals will face off in the first round of the 2024 NBA postseason following Miami's 112-91 play-in victory over the Chicago Bulls. The Heat own the No. 8 seed in the East for the second consecutive playoff run.
Last year as the underdog, Miami defeated Boston in a thrilling seven-game Eastern Conference Finals series. The Celtics went down 3-0 before storming back to force a Game 7 that they lost, 103-84. Miami went on to fall to the Denver Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals.
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These C's and Heat teams will look different than the ones that matched up last May. Boston won't have Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon or Grant Williams, but offseason additions Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday will help on its quest for Banner 18.
As for Miami, it will be without star Jimmy Butler after he suffered an MCL sprain in Wednesday's play-in loss to the Philadelphia 76ers. Last year's playoff hero Gabe Vincent is also gone after joining the Los Angeles Lakers in the offseason.
Game 1 of the first-round series is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday at TD Garden. You can view the full first-round schedule here.
Before we shift our focus to that showdown, here's how the Celtics and Heat have fared in their recent playoff meetings.
2020 Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1 - Heat 117, Celtics 114 (OT)
Miami outlasted Boston in Game 1 of the ECF in the NBA Bubble, thanks in large part to Bam Adebayo's incredibly clutch overtime block on Jayson Tatum.
The Heat came back from down 14 points in their Game 1 win. Goran Dragic led the way with 29 points. Tatum had a team-high 30 for the Celtics in a losing effort.
Game 2 - Heat 106, Celtics 101
After erasing a 14-point deficit in Game 1, Miami came from down 17 to take Game 2. Dragic and Adebayo scored 25 and 21 points, respectively.
Kemba Walker led Boston with 23 while Tatum and Jaylen Brown notched 21 apiece.
Game 3 - Celtics 117, Heat 106
Boston finally punched back with four starters in double figures: Brown (26 points), Tatum (25 points), Walker (21 points) and Smart (20 points). Adebayo had 27 for Miami.
Game 4 - Heat 112, Celtics 109
Tyler Herro played the hero for Miami with a Heat rookie-record 37 points to sink the C's. Tatum led Boston with 28 in the loss.
Game 5 - Celtics 121, Heat 108
Tatum and Brown powered the Celtics to a Game 5 victory with 31 and 28 points, respectively. All five Heat starters scored in double figures, but Boston survived to see another day.
Game 6 - Heat 125, Celtics 113 (Heat win, 4-2)
Miami closed the series out with a 32-point performance from Adebayo and 22 from Butler. Herro added 19 off the bench to send the Heat to the Finals, where they would fall to the Los Angeles Lakers.
2022 Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1 - Heat 118, Celtics 107
Butler led the way with a brilliant 41-point performance to take Game 1 from the C's. Tatum and Brown scored a combined 53 points while Payton Pritchard added 18 off the bench in the defeat.
Game 2 - Celtics 127, Heat 102
Butler had another nice performance with 29 points but this time, the Celtics prevailed. They got 27 from Tatum and 24 from both Brown and Smart in their Game 2 win. Grant Williams added 19 off the bench.
Game 3 - Heat 109, Celtics 103
Adebayo was the star for Miami in Game 3 with a team-high 31 points. Brown had a game-high 40 points but it wasn't enough to lift a Boston team that struggled otherwise offensively.
Game 4 - Celtics 102, Heat 82
Tatum took over with a game-high 31 points to help the Celtics even the series 2-2. Victor Oladipo had 23 off the bench in what was a dismal offensive performance (33.3 percent FG) for Miami.
Game 5 - Celtics 93, Heat 80
The Celtics' defense was the story again in Game 5 as they limited the Heat to 31.9 percent from the floor. Brown and Tatum led the way with 25 and 22 points, respectively.
Game 6 - Heat 111, Celtics 103
Butler wouldn't let the Heat go down without a fight, scoring 47 points to force a Game 7. Tatum had 30 for Boston.
Game 7 - Celtics 100, Heat 96
Butler went off for 35 in Game 7 but this time, it wasn't enough. The Celtics earned a trip to the Finals behind strong showings from Tatum (26 points), Smart (24) and Brown (24). They'd fall in the Finals to the Golden State Warriors.
2023 Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1 - Heat 123, Celtics 116
Butler picked up where he left off the previous year vs. the C's with a 35-point performance in Game 1. Miami scored a franchise playoff-record 46 points in the third quarter to earn the win.
Tatum dropped 30 points in the defeat.
Game 2 - Heat 111, Celtics 105
Butler scored 27 points to help the Heat erase a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit and take a 2-0 series lead. Caleb Martin added 25 off the bench and Adebayo contributed 22 points, 17 rebounds, and nine assists.
Tatum had another strong outing with 34 points, but again it came in a loss.
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Game 3 - Heat 128, Celtics 102
No comeback was necessary for Miami in Game 3. Vincent (29 points) and Duncan Robinson (22 points) led the way in a blowout. Tatum was the Celtics' leading scorer with a modest 14 points. Boston shot just 39.8 percent as a team.
Game 4 - Celtics 116, Heat 99
Tatum scored 33 points to help Boston stave off elimination. The C's trailed by nine to start the third quarter but proceeded to go on an 18-0 run that kept their season alive. Butler's 29 points wasn't enough to send Miami to the Finals.
Game 5 - Celtics 110, Heat 97
The C's drained 16 3-pointers, including six from Derrick White (24 points), to send the series to Game 6. Smart (21 points, five steals), Tatum (21 points, 11 assists), and Brown (21 points) also played big roles in the win.
Game 6 - Celtics 104, Heat 103
White played the hero with a miraculous putback as time expired to force a Game 7. Tatum (31 points), Brown (26 points), and Smart led the way in the scoring department, but White's clutch play gave Boston a chance to become the first team in NBA history to come back from 3-0 in a series.
Game 7 - Heat 103, Celtics 84
Butler (28 points) and Martin (26 points) helped Miami avoid a collapse in a blowout Game 7 victory. Boston struggled mightily from 3-point range (9-for-42, 21. 4 percent), and that was the difference as the Heat advanced to the NBA Finals, where they'd fall to the Denver Nuggets in five games.
