Where Bruins stand in NHL playoff race as trade deadline nears

The Boston Bruins are in the midst of their toughest stretch of the 2021-22 NHL regular season, one that includes nine out of 10 games on the road from Feb. 15 through March 5.

It will be a great test for the Bruins' depth and stamina. This brutal period in the schedule also will have a profound impact on the standings and the Bruins' chances of finishing third in the Atlantic Division or remaining in the wild card spots.

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Here's a breakdown of the Eastern Conference playoff race, where the Bruins likely will finish and their best-case scenario entering the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Standings

Here's a look at the Eastern Conference standings as of Thursday morning.

Atlantic Division

	Team	GP	W-L-OT	PTS
1	Florida Panthers	48	33-10-5	71
2	Tampa Bay Lightning	49	32-11-6	70
3	Toronto Maple Leafs	46	31-12-3	65
4	Boston Bruins	47	27-16-4	58

Wild Card

	Team	GP	W-L-OT	PTS
1	Washington Capitals	51	27-15-9	63
2	Boston Bruins	47	27-16-4	58

The East playoff race isn't going to be very exciting over the last two-plus months of the regular season. The eight teams in a playoff spot right now almost certainly will be in the postseason -- all that's left to determine is seeding. 

It's very unlikely that either the Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings or New York Islanders are able to rocket up the standings and snag one of the wild card spots. We might even see the Blue Jackets become sellers at the trade deadline given their amount of upcoming UFAs who might have value to contenders.

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The Athletic's latest projections give the Islanders a three percent chance to make the playoffs. All other teams currently outside of the playoff picture are at zero percent.

Likely finish

There's still a pretty good chance the Bruins finish as the first wild card team. The B's trail the Washington Capitals by five points entering Thursday, but they also have four games in hand. The Bruins and Capitals have one more regular season head-to-head matchup scheduled for April 10 in Washington. 

The Bruins have a grueling schedule with 35 games over the 72 days. They don't have many off days the rest of the regular season. Fatigue could be a problem in late April and that might allow the Capitals to sneak into the first wild card spot. 

Regardless, a wild card berth for the Bruins is by far the most likely outcome. The Bruins finishing third or better in the division for a sixth consecutive season is a long shot. The Leafs have a 7-point lead on the Bruins with a game in hand. Toronto also has won seven of its last 10 games. 

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It's possible the Leafs falter down the stretch and give the Bruins a chance at third place -- we've all seen Toronto choke away leads -- but the odds are against.

The Athletic's model gives the Bruins an 86 percent chance of finishing fourth in the Atlantic with 105 points, which would make them the first wild card team ahead of the Capitals (100 points).

Best-case scenario

The ideal scenario for the Bruins is finishing as the wild card team that plays in the Metropolitan Division side of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket.

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It would be easier to reach the Eastern Conference Final going through the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals than it would be versus the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning.

That's not to say any of the aforementioned Metro teams would be easy opponents -- Carolina has won its last two games against Boston by a combined score of 13-1 -- but it's an easier path than going through the Atlantic Division gauntlet. The Bruins also have beaten the Hurricanes in two of their last three playoff runs.