The New England Patriots are set to face an NFC North team for the second straight week. This time, after falling to the Packers in Green Bay, they'll look to shut down the Detroit Lions at home.
For that to happen, they'll need a competent performance from rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe. With starter Mac Jones expected to be out again with an ankle injury and veteran backup Brian Hoyer on injured reserve with a concussion, Zappe will be counted on to build off his Week 4 debut.
Zappe helped force overtime vs. the Packers in his first NFL appearance, completing 10 of his 15 passes for 99 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. The fourth-round draft pick will look to outduel Jared Goff, who surprisingly has led the best offense in the league over the first four weeks of the campaign.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Boston sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
Patriots Talk: How can the Patriots expand their offense? | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
While New England is expected to be down its starting QB, Detroit has its own injury woes heading into Sunday's matchup as running back D'Andre Swift and wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark each are expected to be ruled out. That's a big break for a 1-3 Patriots team that desperately needs a victory in front of the Gillette Stadium crowd.
Will Zappe lead the Patriots to their second win of the year? Or will it be time to hit the panic button after a home loss to Detroit? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the Week 5 showdown, and here were the results...
New England Patriots
Find the latest New England Patriots news, highlights, analysis and more with NBC Sports Boston.
Nick Folk stays automatic
Nick Folk has been Mr. Reliable for the Patriots and that continued in Strat-O-Matic's simulation of Sunday's game.
Neither the Patriots nor the Lions lit up the box score on offense. Zappe tallied 190 yards through the air while Goff totaled a modest 217. Detroit notched 119 rushing yards to New England's 96.
There weren't many big moments, but Folk made sure to provide some fireworks. The veteran kicker converted all three of his field goal attempts, including a 48-yard boot with 5:36 left that turned out to be the game-winner. His other two field goals came in the second quarter and went for 37 and 31 yards, respectively.
In last week's loss to the Packers, Folk extended his NFL record with 58 consecutive made kicks under 50 yards. The simulation projects he'll keep it rolling in Week 5.
Patriots defense steps up
The Lions offense enters Week 5 leading the NFL in total points (140) and points per game (35.0). Quarterback Jared Goff is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with 11.
In Strat-O-Matic's simulation, however, New England's D defended its home turf and limited Detroit to its lowest scoring output of the year. It also held the Lions offense to 303 total yards.
The big moment for the Patriots defense came on Detroit's final drive. Starting on their own 20-yard line with 1:30 remaining, the Lions only need a field goal to tie. New England forced them to turn it over on four straight drives, sealing the much-needed victory in Foxboro.
Top performers
Lions
RB Jamaal Williams: 13 rush, 77 yds, 1 TD
RB Justin Jackson: 2 rush, 4 yds, 2 rec, 41 yds, 1 TD
TE T.J. Hockenson: 8 rec, 50 yds
Patriots
RB Damien Harris: 11 rush, 54 yds, 1TD
WR Nelson Agholor: 5 rec, 85 yds
TE Hunter Henry: 2 rec, 29 yds, 1 TD
Quarterback comparison
Lions
Jared Goff: 24/40, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 83.0 rating
Patriots
Bailey Zappe: 15/25, 190 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, 97.1 rating
Final score: Patriots 23, Lions 20
The real Patriots-Lions matchup is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday at Gillette Stadium.