Perry's Prototypical Patriots: Which WRs could New England target in draft?
The wide receiver class in the 2021 NFL Draft is one of the deepest in recent memory, and the New England Patriots still need depth at the position despite signing Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne in free agency.Bill Belichick's recent track record of drafting wide receivers notwithstanding, the Patriots' selection of N'Keal Harry at No. 32 overall in 2019 proves they're willing to spend a high pick at wideout if the need is there. So, which pass-catchers fit the Patriots' mold in the 2021 class?Phil Perry's latest installment in his "Prototypical Patriots" series focuses on potential wide receiver fits for New England.
The Patriots took a different approach to free agency at wide receiver than they did at tight end. With the bigger-bodied pass-catchers, they went all in. They grabbed the two best available on the market in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith -- giving both record-setting fully guaranteed dollar figures in the process -- and reshaped the position group in the matter of a couple of days.
At receiver, they were similarly aggressive. But the contracts they signed weren't as seismic. Nelson Agholor got a deal that will pay him $11 million per year. Kendrick Bourne's deal will give him $5 million per year. Neither would qualify as stars, as their contracts would indicate, and there appears to still be a void for the Patriots at the position.
Maybe the draft is where they'll find their eventual go-to player in critical situations. It's another loaded draft class at receiver, and there will be capable options for Bill Belichick and Co. to pick from well into Day 3. Here we'll try to identify the best fits based on Belichick's draft history at the position.
Who Belichick has selected in the past could be best summed up by one adjective: freaky.
The average outside-the-numbers player Belichick has drafted in the first four rounds has a 40-yard dash time of about 4.38 seconds, about a 6.87-second three-cone, approximately a 36.5-inch vertical, in the range of a 124-inch broad jump and close to a 4.21-second short shuttle. None have measured shorter than 5-foot-11 or lighter than 198 pounds.
The average slot Belichick has drafted is a little slower (about a 4.46-second 40) and a little less explosive (36-inch vertical, 118-inch broad). But the average slot is also quicker (6.76-second three-cone, 4.06-second short shuttle). None have measured shorter than 5-foot-8 or 184 pounds.
In addition to checking up on all standard measurements, we'll also dig into Kent Lee Platte's Relative Athletic Score for some context on this year's receiver group. RAS factors in height, weight and speed numbers to generate a score for any player who has recorded enough data to qualify. (All measurements and times we find were taken at pro days this year. You can find more on RAS here.)
Why is RAS useful for our purposes, particularly when it comes to the Patriots and the receivers they've drafted over the last two decades? Belichick has taken receivers only with "elite" scores (RAS of 8.00 or higher) in the first four rounds of the draft.
Eleven of the 16 receivers drafted by the Patriots who qualified for an RAS score were "elite" scorers. (Brandon Tate, taken in the third round in 2009, did not qualify for an RAS score as he did not test prior to the draft.) And of the eight receivers Belichick has selected in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds, three of them (including Julian Edelman) were "elite" scorers for Platte.
Jaylen Waddle, Alabama: 5-foot-10, 182 pounds
We don't have test numbers for Waddle at this point, but it stands to reason that even for Belichick's lofty athletic standards at the position, Waddle will easily qualify. He might be the most explosive playmaker in this year's draft. He may be a little light compared to what the Patriots have selected at the position, but not by much. And even so, his speed, acceleration and agility to win as a route-runner, and his competitiveness at the catch point is enough to overlook a few pounds.
Waddle is also one of the best, if not the best, returners in the class. The Patriots will love that. Factor in his production (21.1 yards per catch in 2020 prior to injury), three years of breaking down SEC corners, and the Nick Saban connection? Yep. He's a Prototypical Patriot.
Rondale Moore, Purdue: 5-foot-7, 180 pounds
We're already into exception territory here. But barely. Moore is a little short compared to what the Patriots have drafted in the past. He's a little light. But when considering the absurd level of power packed into his small frame, it would behoove the Patriots to look past any concerns about Moore's stature. He jumped 43 inches in the vertical, ran a 4.29-second 40 and a lightning-quick 6.68-second three-cone drill.
He checks every box athletically and is an "elite" scorer when it comes to RAS (9.38). He's dealt with hamstring injuries, but those might not be the concern they appear to be on paper.
He joined the Next Pats Podcast recently and told us he's been told he's a "Patriots guy" throughout the pre-draft process because of his style of play and how he interviews. Can't disagree.
Elijah Moore, Ole Miss: 5-foot-9, 178 pounds
Another Moore. Another "elite" RAS score (8.69). Another explosive wideout who just misses the mark for New England in terms of weight. Feed him a few Subway sandwiches, though, and he'll still be able to fly. He ran a 4.35-second 40 to go along with wildly fast agility times (4.00 short shuttle, 6.65 three-cone). He also submitted more than adequate jump numbers (36-inch vertical, 121-inch broad).
Last season, he racked up 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns as a slot machine. To succeed as he did, running away from SEC defensive backs on a regular basis, will pique New England's interest.
Kadarius Toney, Florida: 5-foot-11, 189 pounds
Still waiting on testing numbers to confirm Toney's athletic profile, but safe to say he's athletic enough. One of the toughest-to-wrangle receivers in the draft class, Toney posted 32 broken tackles on 80 catches since 2019, per Pro Football Focus. His ability to get in and out of cuts was on display in the one-on-one periods during the Senior Bowl, and he went off for 977 yards and 10 scores last season for the Gators.
That kind of production, against that kind of competition, with the athletic gifts that he clearly possesses... He belongs here.
Shi Smith, South Carolina: 5-foot-9, 186 pounds
Plenty of size to play inside in New England. Plenty of explosiveness (36-inch vert, 123-inch broad). Plenty of speed (4.43 40). Smith was a tick below what slots drafted by the Patriots have averaged (4.2-second shuttle, 6.83 three-cone), but he's a smooth route-runner who had plenty of success at the Senior Bowl.
That combination of athleticism and success against very good competition -- he was a four-year starter for the Gamecocks -- makes him an easy fit here.
D'Wayne Eskridge, Western Michigan: 5-foot-9, 190 pounds
Like Smith, Eskridge doesn't possess quite the agility that the Patriots have sought on the inside (4.22-second shuttle, 6.95 three-cone), but is he quick enough based on his blazing 4.38-second 40 time? Another Senior Bowl standout from a small school -- a class of player the Patriots have taken several times in the past -- Eskridge could bring a vertical element to the slot in New England it hasn't had before.
He also seems like a fit from an attitude perspective. He was asked to play defense in 2019, took the assignment head-on, flipped back to the other side of the ball in 2020 and averaged 23.1 yards per catch to go along with eight touchdowns.
Jaelon Darden, North Texas, 5-foot-8, 174 pounds
Trust in your nutrition program? Feel like Darden can put on a few pounds once he transitions from North Texas to the NFL? I do. If Darden can, and if he can maintain his athleticism, he possesses the kind of freaky profile the Patriots covet. He hits every marker from a testing perspective -- 35.5-inch vert, 122-inch broad, 4.46 40, 4.10 shuttle, 6.67 three-cone -- and his tape is one clip after another of Darden disrespecting would-be tacklers. According to PFF, he broke 23 tackles on 74 catches last year.
Nico Collins, Michigan: 6-foot-4, 215 pounds
Collins represents one of the all-around best fits in this draft class based on the selections Belichick has made in the past. He was named Offensive Player of the Year in 2019 for a Michigan coaching staff loaded with Patriots connections, including former offensive assistant and Josh McDaniels' brother Ben McDaniels. He had 37 grabs for 729 yards and seven scores that year. Though he opted out of 2020, he went to the Senior Bowl and performed well.
He's not considered a big-time separation-generator, but his athleticism is eye-popping for a player with his frame. He clocked a 4.45-second 40 to go along with a snappy 6.71 three-cone at his pro day. His impressive jumps of 37.5 inches in the vertical and 125 inches in the broad are no surprise given his tape.
If the Patriots are looking for a boundary option to pair with the more versatile Nelson Agholor, Collins would be a very nice fit for them on Day 2.
Ja'Marr Chase, LSU: 6-foot-1, 200 pounds
Arguably the best receiver in the draft class, Chase might've been the first receiver taken in last year's loaded class had he been eligible. It's unclear at the moment just how athletic he is from a testing perspective.
He's not considered a burner, and he's not the best separator in the draft. But after he put up almost 1,800 yards in the SEC as a 19-year-old, it's safe to say Chase's size and frame is enough to help him make an immediate impact at the next level.
Rashod Bateman, Minnesota: 6-foot-2, 210 pounds
Bateman ain't exactly a blazer, either. Yes, he ran a 4.39-second 40 earlier this offseason, but he doesn't typically win with straight-line speed. His releases are pure, he understands leverage, he aligns everywhere, and he has enough size to win 50-50 balls.
His size combined with his route-running ability and legitimate speed -- not to mention his 1,200-yard 2019 season -- all make him a good fit for this list.
Terrace Marshall, LSU: 6-foot-3, 200 pounds
Yes, there has been an offensive explosion at LSU over the course of the last couple of seasons. But Marshall's production is really impressive. He's tied for fourth in school history in career receiving touchdowns (23) despite just two seasons as a starter under his belt, and he's one of just six players with at least 1,500 yards receiving and 20 touchdowns. Not bad for a school with some big-time receivers who came through the program.
No testing numbers for Marshall yet, but he's a speed option who has enough size to play outside and enough experience in the slot (308 slot snaps in 2020, per PFF) to see time inside at the next level. Still just 20 years old, if he packs on some muscle and gets a little stronger at the line of scrimmage, he could be a problem at the next level.
Dyami Brown, North Carolina: 6-foot-1, 189 pounds
This class is loaded with "elite" RAS scorers, and Brown is another. He's a little light to play wide for the Patriots, but he has plenty of athletic juice to be used outside the numbers in McDaniels' offense. He ran a 4.46-second 40 time and a quick enough three-cone drill at 6.87 seconds. His 4.35-second shuttle isn't ideal for a Patriots wideout, but he's an explosive player (35-inch vertical, 128-inch broad) who was a down-the-field monster for the Tar Heels.
He racked up over 1,000 yards and 20.0 yards per catch in each of the last two seasons. Even though he didn't run an exotic route tree, he has all the tools to do more in that regard as a pro.
Josh Palmer, Tennessee: 6-foot-1, 210 pounds
Palmer is impressive athletically, but he's right on the outer edges of acceptability for the Patriots in several of his testing numbers. He ran a 4.51-second 40 and a 6.98-second three-cone to go along with a 4.24-second shuttle. None of those will make the evaluators at One Patriot Place jump out of their seats. But he has good size and his 124-inch broad jump reflects his explosiveness.
The Vols had trouble getting him the football the last two seasons (32 and 34 catches for 475 and 457 yards), but he flashed plenty of ability, including beating Alabama's Patrick Surtain II for the only touchdown the cornerback allowed in 2020. Palmer stood out at the Senior Bowl, too, which should make teams feel much better about him as a Day 2 choice than his stats would suggest.
Michael Strachan, University of Charleston: 6-foot-5, 228 pounds
One of the best height-weight-speed receivers in the draft, Strachan clocked a blazing 4.46-second and repped 225 pounds on the bench 20 times at his pro day despite a ridiculously-long 85-inch wingspan. He also recorded a massive 127-broad jump, and very quick shuttle (4.20 seconds) and three-cone (6.9 seconds) times for someone his size.
He went up against far inferior talents at the Division 2 level, but his physical ability is still readily apparent on his tape. On Day 3, he could end up a steal.
Simi Fehoko, Stanford: 6-foot-4, 222 pounds
Bigger, faster, stronger. That's Fehoko compared to the majority of this year's receiver class. Or any receiver class, really. Like Strachan, there simply aren't many receivers built like this Stanford product. At his size, his 4.44-second 40, 4.26-second shuttle and 6.78-second three-cone all fall within what the Patriots would like. He's not the most springy guy in the class (34.5-inch vert, 120-inch broad), but he's explosive enough to win on the outside.
He caught 37 passes last season for 574 yards and three scores after having shown a little less consistency but a little more explosiveness (24 catches, 566 yards, six scores) in 2019. Even though he's five years removed from high school after serving a two-year Latter-Day Saints mission, he's still considered unrefined and as having plenty of room to grow from a technique perspective.
Racey McMath, LSU: 6-foot-3, 224 pounds
McMath was buried on a loaded receiver depth chart for the Tigers for a time, but he was able to start in six games last year (14 catches, 195 yards) before suffering a hamstring injury. He hasn't tested yet, but when he does, it should be impressive. And that combination of size and speed, along with what he did in the kicking game at LSU, has him considered as one of the top special-teamers in this year's draft class.
As a Day 3 "teams" option, this Senior Bowler looks like a Patriots fit -- even if he's considered an afterthought offensively for Belichick.
Connor Wedington, Stanford: 6-foot-0, 196 pounds
Another special-teams option, Wedington offers up a fascinating athletic profile. Not only did he run an impressive 4.47-second 40 time, he also is one of the quickest wideouts in the class with a 4.07-second shuttle and a 6.66-second three-cone time. His 38.5-inch vertical was also eye-opening at Stanford's pro day.
Wedington was his team's Most Outstanding Special Teams Player in 2019 after posting 28.1 yards per kick return to go along with 51 catches for 506 yards. As a captain in 2020 coming from a program the Patriots respect, keep an eye on him on Day 3.
Josh Imatorbhebhe, Illinois: 6-foot-1, 218 pounds
Imatorbhebhe is one of the toughest Prototypes to pinpoint this year because his numbers aren't all there for the Patriots. His shuttle time was 4.38 seconds. His three-cone time was 7.10 seconds. His 40 time was 4.53 seconds. And he wasn't all that productive at Illinois, accumulating just 939 yards total in the last three seasons.
But he can absolutely fly. He soared a whopping 46.5 inches in the vertical and 134 inches in the broad jump. Those are mind-boggling numbers and they were enough to land him in Platte's "elite" category in terms of RAS. Tough call, but we'll include him here because it'd be no surprise if the Patriots took a shot on his explosiveness on Day 3.
Tarik Black, Texas: 6-foot-3, 213 pounds
We've got another leaper here, and another "elite" RAS scorer (9.56). Black was long known as an NFL talent even going back to his time at Michigan, but he dealt with foot injuries that blocked his path to playing time and ended up transferring to the Big 12 as a grad student. He played in eight games for Texas, catching just 10 passes for 240 yards, but if he gets a good review from the folks at Michigan then maybe the Patriots would call his name late on draft weekend.
His athletic profile (6.91-second three-cone time, 40-inch vertical, 132-inch broad) is certainly worth a shot in the league even if he's not a speed demon (4.54-second 40). Those testing numbers are similar to what N'Keal Harry posted in 2019 (4.53 40, 7.05 three-cone, 38.5 vertical), though Harry was about 10 pounds heavier and more productive.
Brennan Eagles (6-4, 225 pounds) is another interesting Texas product at receiver this year because he can jump, too (127-inch broad). But he wasn't fast enough (4.55-second 40, 4.42-second shuttle) to make this list.
Jalen Camp, Georgia Tech: 6-foot-2, 226 pounds
The Yellow Jackets always seem to find impressive athletes at wideout, and Camp is the latest. He led the team in 2020 with 29 catches for 439 yards and four scores. An ACC academic honor roll member, Camp did not play for a pass-happy offense, but if he had his physical traits indicate he might've been able to do some more damage. At his size, his 39.5-inch vertical, 125-inch broad, 4.48-second 40, 4.14-second shuttle and 7.00-second three-cone drill resulted in an "elite" RAS score of 9.61. He also had a monster 30 reps of 225 pounds on the bench.
Camp may be another special-teams option with upside worthy of a late draft choice or an early call during the scramble for undrafted free agents.
Devonta Smith, Alabama: 6-foot-1, 170 pounds
He's polished. He's elusive with the ball in his hands. He was incredibly productive in the toughest conference in the country. His coach, one of Bill Belichick's greatest friends in the coaching ranks, loves him. But Smith's an extreme outlier in terms of his weight and athletic profile. (Scouts believe he would be about 4.5-second 40 guy if he were to test.)
Amari Rodgers, Clemson: 5-foot-9, 212 pounds
The Patriots will love that Rodgers overcame serious injury quickly and ended up as tough as ever to tackle. They'll love his productivity, his big-game experience and his performance at the Senior Bowl. But his speed (4.52-second 40), agility (4.31-second shuttle) and explosiveness (33-inch vertical) keep him off this list.
Cade Johnson, South Dakota State: 5-foot-11, 184 pounds
Johnson could end up being the latest Patriots draft pick to come from a smaller program after showing out at the Senior Bowl -- he earned the highest PFF grade during Senior Bowl one-on-ones -- but his athletic traits at this position just don't really stack up with what the Patriots have wanted in the past.
At his size, they're typically looking for a 40 time better than 4.51 seconds and possessing a little more explosiveness than his 114-inch broad jump would indicate.
Tutu Atwell, Louisville: 5-foot-9, 165 pounds
Atwell has speed to burn but, like Smith, his weight is just not where it needs to be to be considered a "prototype" in New England.
Sage Surratt, Wake Forest: 6-foot-3, 215 pounds
Surratt has the size that the Patriots would like on the outside, and he has plenty of contested catches on his resume, including at the Senior Bowl. But his tape doesn't show a player who would stand out as an elite athlete. We'll see what his numbers show later this week at Wake's pro day.
