Perry: Grading every Patriots position group after free-agent splurge
The New England Patriots addressed several needs amid a free-agent spending spree -- but not all. Phil Perry breaks down every position group after the first wave of signings to assess which areas still need improvement this offseason.
The Patriots still have plenty of time and money. There are still moves to make, players to sign, draftees to select. Their roster is in no way a finished product.
But it sure has taken shape over the course of the last seven days.
They've set a record in terms of guaranteed money dished out, surpassing last year's Miami Dolphins, who laid out a pretty good case study for how spending in free agency can -- if enough goes well -- lead to quick on-the-field results.
Three of the biggest signings for Miami last March were linebacker Kyle Van Noy (now back with the Patriots after the Dolphins released him), cornerback Byron Jones and defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah. All were positive additions, and the team quickly went from the worst defense in football in terms of points allowed (30.9 in 2019) to tied for fifth-best (21.1 in 2020). They went from having a 5-11 record in 2019 to 10-6 in 2020, although they missed the postseason despite the massive turnaround.
Will the Patriots see a five-game improvement in the win column the way the Dolphins did last year? According to ESPN, teams that have spent more than $100 million in guaranteed money in free agency have improved their win total by an average of more than five the following season. According to Pro Football Focus, the Patriots are at the moment the most improved team in football this offseason, increasing their wins above replacement by almost seven percent.
Understanding there's still more team-building to come, we'll go position-by-position to assess how the Patriots' roster looks at the moment. We'll provide a grade for each position and lay out what may come next for each spot by listing it as a "MUST," a "NEED," or a "WANT."
That's how The Athletic's Michael Lombardi, former Bill Belichick assistant in both Cleveland and New England, explained the approach taken by Belichick in free agency when trying to decipher where to spend.
"Belichick made a list of what he deemed initially most important based on free agency availability, then prioritized the list," Lombardi wrote. "Based on what he’s done in the past, the list is likely broken into three sections: MUST-NEED-WANT.
"For the Patriots to field a competitive team next season, the MUST list will include those positions deemed fundamentally necessary. Without an improvement in those areas, the team likely will not make much progress. We all know quarterback was on the MUST list.
" ... The NEED areas are the positions that need improvement, that might take a year of a younger player developing before taking over. The WANT area is a list of positions that a team would love to improve, but can win with what they have — sort of a luxury area."
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Lombardi stated that quarterback was on the MUST list and is more of a NEED now that the team has re-signed Cam Newton. That may be how the Patriots perceive it. They believe Newton can function, and his numbers should no doubt improve with an upgraded group of pass-catchers around him.
But whether this is a MUST or a NEED depends on where the Patriots want to go. Their free-agent spending seems to indicate they want to compete posthaste. Truly compete. Not just be competitive. There's a difference. If they want to get to the postseason and make any noise in January, this remains a MUST.
With all the spending they've done around the quarterback spot, their best option as The Next Guy could come in the form of a young, cost-effective talent in the first round of the draft. Another way to go would be a low-cost veteran, who hits free agency late in the process. Marcus Mariota, perhaps? He still needs to shake free from the Las Vegas Raiders.
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The Patriots will be fine on early downs. Damien Harris and Sony Michel aren't a bad pairing for what the Patriots clearly want to do on the ground. And given what they've done in free agency, they want to run the ball. A lot.
But on third down? They still could use a true sub back since both James White and Rex Burkhead are free agents. Maybe that role can be filled by second-year player JJ Taylor, a favorite of running backs coach Ivan Fears. But is he enough? One more piece for this backfield still feels like a NEED.
On paper, Nelson Agholor looks like the kind of free-agent signing that gets teams in trouble. He had a disappointing stretch as a first-rounder. He signed a one-year prove-it deal. He played well. He got paid. The money here isn't a massive concern because the Patriots had money to spend. But it's the role he seems expected to handle that's a head-scratcher.
Agholor is being paid near the top of this year's free-agent class, and it looks like he's believed to be capable of being the top wideout in New England. That's not who he's been for the vast majority of his career. He has speed, which the Patriots needed. He's versatile. But he needs a running mate or two.
Jakobi Meyers should be one. Maybe Kendrick Bourne is the other. But if that's Belichick's top-three, that would look like the worst on-paper receiver group in the division and a below-average group in the league.
The Patriots could work with this unit because they'll be in so many two-tight-end packages and only have two wideouts on the field at a time in those situations. But this remains a NEED.
This wide receiver draft class is talented, so perhaps the next piece will arrive in April. Maybe a free agent like T.Y. Hilton or Josh Reynolds ends up in Foxboro to give the team a more immediate boost here.
The Patriots probably overpaid for both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Both got more fully guaranteed money than either San Francisco's George Kittle or Kansas City's Travis Kelce. But that's just the nature of the beast when you want to be aggressive early in free agency.
While neither of their new additions can be considered a star at the position just yet -- there are probably only three in the league who qualify, including Vegas' Darren Waller -- this duo now makes up one of the most formidable tight end rooms in the league.
Maybe the Patriots WANT a true blocking tight end specialist for the room, but they should be able to get that from 260-pound Devin Asiasi or with a low-cost free agent.
This is shaping up to be one of the best groups in football if everyone stays healthy. That's a big "if." Their tackles, Isaiah Wynn and Trent Brown, have missed a combined 30 games over the last two seasons. But when they're on the field, they're dynamic and can perform in just about any situation asked.
Even with the departure of Joe Thuney, the team remains strong up the middle with center David Andrews back, Shaq Mason at right guard and second-year man Mike Onwenu at left guard. If there's an addition here to be made, it's a long-term add at the tackle spot; Wynn and Brown are both looking at contract years.
It's a talented draft class at that position so perhaps that's where they'll go in the first or second rounds. Let's call tackle a long-term NEED, but for 2021, it's a WANT.
If Wynn or Brown miss time, the Patriots could do worse than have Justin Herron as their swing option. Onwenu also could kick out to tackle if needed and Ted Karras could sub in to play guard.
Lawrence Guy remains a free agent, but if he were to return then this grade would get a nice bump. As it stands right now, the group of big bodies Belichick has added up front isn't bad.
Henry Anderson is an underrated interior defender, and Davon Godchaux will be effective on early downs. Byron Cowart, Carl Davis, Deatrich Wise and Montravius Adams should help make it a formidable rotation.
They have depth with five 300-plus-pounders who look like they can play. But they are still lacking the true nose-tackle type that the Patriots like. You know, a 330-pounder who can align over a center, hold his ground, and eat double-teams. Call that a WANT.
This grade was teetering on the verge of "A-" territory because its depth is staggering compared to what the Patriots had a season ago.
Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Josh Uche all could play at the end of the line of scrimmage or off the ball. Matthew Judon provides another versatile edge option who will be stout against the run on early downs and a menace as a pass-rusher or quarterback spy in obvious passing situations. Ja'Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan, Anfernee Jennings and Terez Hall are solid reserve options.
They have experience and youth. They have interchangeable parts. They look solid here. Hard to even come up with a WANT. The only thing holding back this grade a bit are questions about whether or not Uche and Jennings can make Year 2 leaps, how quickly Hightower will hit the ground running after opting out, and Judon's ability to adapt to a new system.
This is the grade that could see the most fluctuation over the next few weeks. With Stephon Gilmore, JC Jackson, Jonathan Jones and newly-signed Jalen Mills all in the fold, it's a formidable group.
But Gilmore is on a $7 million base salary that will need to be altered, and Jackson is on a second-round restricted free-agent tender that could result in him leaving town in a deal that would bring back a valuable pick to Foxboro. Sure, both could stay, which would give Belichick a strong top two. But both could leave, theoretically, bringing back draft capital but decimating the position.
For now, it's a strong unit on paper, and another piece here probably can be deemed only a WANT. Maybe there's a player in the top three rounds of the draft who could be added to help guard against future departures of either (or both) Gilmore or Jackson. If one of those two are gone, this could quickly jump up to a MUST.
Rock solid, barring injury. Devin McCourty still is more than capable of patrolling the deep part of the field. Kyle Dugger looks primed for a big second season, and Adrian Phillips has quickly become one of the team's toughest and most important defenders after just one season.
Mills could factor into the mix here as well, as could Jonathan Jones, who saw some time at safety a season ago. Perhaps a free-safety-of-the-future type could qualify as a WANT in the draft at the end of April. But to compete right now? They should be good to go.
By re-signing Nick Folk, the Patriots guaranteed themselves of having a quality-if-not-standout option at kicker. They have one of the best punters in football in Jake Bailey, and they return 2020 All-Pro return man Gunner Olszewski.
Matthew Slater will be 36 to start next season, but he remains among the best kick-coverage players in football and has given no indication at this point that he plans to hang 'em up. Special teams standouts Justin Bethel and Cody Davis also re-signed with the Patriots this offseason, keeping together a significant portion of the core that made up the No. 1 special teams unit in the NFL, according to Rick Gosselin's annual rankings.
Adding kicking-game talent through the draft is always a WANT, though, so it'd be no surprise to see some specialists find their way to One Patriot Place in the spring.
