Perry: Fields, Bears should be no match for New England's defense

FOXBORO -- Mac Jones ... Bailey Zappe ... Against the Bears on Monday night, will it really matter? In all likelihood, probably not.

The Bears are woeful. The reasons not to believe in their chances this week abound.

They rank no higher than 28th in the league in points (31st), total yards (28th), passing yards (32nd), completion percentage (32nd), quarterback rating (31st), sacks allowed (31st), passing touchdowns (30th) and first downs (29th).

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For those who appreciate advanced metrics, consider the following. The Bears are 30th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, which accounts for strength of schedule and situational efficiency. They're 31st in passing DVOA and 27th in rush defense DVOA. They're 31st in offensive success rate, according to the Athletic's Ben Baldwin, and quarterback Justin Fields' completion percentage over expected -- an accuracy measurement that accounts for field position, down, distance, air yard and other factors -- is 31st.

The Bears are the worst team in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus' grading. And, as you might've guessed, PFF has them grading out near the bottom of the league both offensively (29th) and defensively (31st).

Bad team.

Doesn't mean there aren't a handful of non-quarterback matchups worth tracking when the lights come on ...

Matchup to win the first half

Patriots front vs. Justin Fields' legs

Fields, and more specifically how the Bears use their second-year quarterback, is an enigma. Patriots defenders understand that Chicago rarely calls for designed quarterback runs, despite that their quarterback is one of the most athletic in the sport.

But Fields will get his on the ground in unscripted scramble-drill situations. He leads all quarterbacks with 33 such runs this year, and even without the help of a designed quarterback running game, Fields is fourth among NFL signal-callers with 282 yards rushing. Bill Belichick highlighted the issue with defending Fields' athleticism last week, saying that his scrambles "might count as running plays in the stats, but they're actually passing plays in terms of having to defend them."

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If the Patriots can bottle Fields up behind the line of scrimmage, play disciplined within their pass-rush lanes, and be patient so as not to allow him an opening through New England's first line of defense (Fields leads all quarterbacks in time spent behind the line with a 3.42-second time-to-throw figure, per PFF), they should otherwise have no issue preventing explosive plays and breeze through the opening two quarters.

Matchup that will surprise you

Davon Godchaux vs. Lucas Patrick

Godchaux isn't exactly a pass-rush specialist. He's a versatile defender along the interior who can play in a variety of roles and situations. But he has an opportunity to give Bears fans flashbacks to Vikings legend John Randle given the matchup Monday.

Patrick is one of the league's worst pass-protecting interior offensive linemen to this point in the 2022 season. He earned a 7.5 pass-blocking grade from PFF (out of 100) when the Bears lost to the Commanders last week, allowing a sack, a quarterback hit and four hurries. On just 133 snaps, he's allowed 12 pressures, which ties him for fourth-most at the position. (Miami's Liam Eichenberg, one of the worst guards in the league this year, has the same number of pressures allowed. On 108 more snaps.)

The Bears will likely reshuffle their line in Foxboro, shifting Patrick to center. If Christian Barmore (knee) is at all limited, that could mean ample opportunity for Godchaux -- or even backup pass-rushing lineman Daniel Ekuale -- to see Patrick on passing downs. Godchaux had a season-high three pressures and a sack last weekend in Cleveland. Don't be surprised if he keeps it rolling Monday.

Matchup that will bring you joy

Mike Onwenu vs. guts of Bears defense

The Bears have been effective at keeping teams down on the scoreboard, allowing fewer than 20.0 points per game, but they are awfully generous to opposing running games. They allow 4.8 yards per carry (26th in the NFL) and 163.0 yards per game (31st). That should mean plenty of action for New England backs, with Damien Harris set to return from a hamstring injury and join Rhamondre Stevenson. But keeping an eye on "Big Mike" Onwenu could be a real source of happiness for Patriots fans.

Onwenu will outweigh starting linebacker Nicholas Morrow (216 pounds) by over 130 pounds. The Patriots often like to kick Onwenu out on edge defenders when he pulls, giving him a chance to flex his muscles against 32-year-old Robert Quinn -- the fourth-worst run-defending edge defender in the NFL this year, according to PFF -- who typically works away from Onwenu's side on the offensive left.

Those are collisions that could lead to Onwenu "burping" other adults, as his college offensive line coach used to describe it. It'll also be interesting to see how the Patriots, and Onwenu in particular, end up handling defensive lineman Justin Jones, who tried to single-handedly resurrect Deflategate this week.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Khalil Herbert vs. Patriots linebackers

The Bears aren't only shaking things up on the offensive line. They may be making a shift at running back as well. Matt Eberflus said last week that his team will go with "the hot hand" at that position moving forward, even though David Montgomery has been the clear No. 1 when healthy.

That could end up being bad news for Montgomery ... and the Patriots defense. Backup back Khalil Herbert has been far more efficient in 2022. His 6.4 yards-per-carry average dwarfs that of Montgomery (4.0), and it's not as though one back has had far more work than another. The two have almost the same number of carries -- Herbert has 63 carries; Montgomery has 62 -- because Montgomery missed almost two entire games thanks to an ankle injury.

Montgomery is the better receiver and so if the Patriots play with a lead, he may see more time than Herbert no matter what. But if it's close? And if Eberflus is open to using Herbert more frequently? Could be one of the tougher challenges tackling-wise the Patriots have seen this year. Herbert has forced 18 missed tackles on his 63 carries. For context on how impressive that is, consider Rhamondre Stevenson has forced 19 missed tackles on 24 more attempts. No back in football with at least 40 attempts has more yards after contact per attempt than Herbert (4.51).

In the rain, the Patriots defense is going to have to be on its Ps and Qs when it comes to tackling -- especially when Herbert is out there.

Matchup that will decide the game

Patriots secondary vs. Bears receivers

This is a team that tried to upgrade its receiver room by dealing for N'Keal Harry, who hasn't yet played in a Bears uniform but might when he makes his return to Gillette Stadium. Speaks to their lack of established talent on the outside, which helps illuminate why they're one of the worst teams in football on third down (24th, 35.6 percent conversions).

Fields isn't an off-the-charts abysmal third-down passer. He's completing 60 percent of his throws for 8.1 yards per attempt. But his interception percentage (5.7) is third among quarterbacks with at least 30 third-down throws this year. He's also taken eight third-down sacks, which is tied for seventh-most in the NFL, despite the fact that he's thrown the fewest passes of any six-game starter this year.

So long as the Patriots don't allow Bears receivers to get behind them ... so long as they can keep Fields' legs from burning them ... Belichick should coast past legendary Bears coach George Halas for sole possession of No. 2 on the all-time wins list.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bears 9