We spent last week spitballing about which team the Patriots would be best off facing in the AFC Divisional Playoffs -- the Texans, Ravens or Chargers.
I said Ravens, reasoning that the team with the least potent quarterback would be the most welcome opponent. Senator Phil Perry said the Texans, reasoning that they can’t block or cover.
I don’t know anyone that said the Chargers, but if they did, they probably would have done so based on two things: 1) L.A. is 3,000 miles from here and warm; 2) the Patriots beat the Chargers in the playoffs in the 2006 and 2007 playoffs, and that person thinks nothing ever changes.
I put stock in the plane ride. I put no stock in the history between these teams.
The Chargers are by far the toughest team the Patriots could draw. They went 12-4 but finished second in the AFC West, losing the tiebreaker to the Chiefs.
The “best” of the three teams the Patriots could have possibly faced will be coming to Foxboro for the AFC Divisional Playoff next Sunday. The 12-4 Chargers went 4-2 in their division; Kansas City went 5-1.
The Chargers pretty much beat every team they should have beaten, some soundly. Their four losses were to KC in the opener, the Rams in Week 3, a one-point loss to Denver and a 12-point loss to the Ravens that’s now been repaid.
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You’re going to get bombarded with information this week. A goodly portion will be of no use whatsoever. Sorry in advance.
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Anyway, here are a few things I think you should know/ignore.
GUS BRADLEY MATTERS
The Chargers run that Cover-3 mess that Pete Carroll brought into vogue in Seattle.
Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley was the Seahawks' defensive coordinator from 2009 to 2012, and when he left to become head coach of the Jaguars he brought that scheme with him, coached four seasons then got canned.
Bradley’s successor, Dan Quinn, kept at it with that scheme in Seattle, got hired to coach the Falcons and -- famously -- lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
See where I’m going with this?
You got the right defenders in that scheme, it’s an absolute bitch to move against, especially for seven-step drop quarterbacks trying to push the ball downfield. The Chargers have the right defenders. But the Patriots know the antidote.
The linebacker level is the soft underbelly and the Patriots have chewed that up over the years with slot receivers, running backs and Tom Brady’s quick diagnosis/release.
In 2012, Wes Welker had 10 catches for 138 yards in a one-point loss at Seattle. In the 2014 Super Bowl, Julian Edelman had nine for 109 and Shane Vereen had 11 for 64. In the 2016 Super Bowl, Edelman had five for 87 (the Falcons sold out on stopping him), but James White had 14 for 110.
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Los Angeles has terrific secondary players and an Earl Thomas-like safety in Derwin James, along with an excellent slot corner in Desmond King. That concerns me vis a vis Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. They also have very legitimate pass-rush threats with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Brady is going to take some hits. The key to the Patriots offense is Jimmy White game. Big Jimmy White game.
The wrinkle to the Bradley/Cover 3 scheme that’s interesting as well is head coach Anthony Lynn’s background. He’s an offensive guy but coached under Bill Parcells at Dallas and Rex Ryan with the Jets and Buffalo. The Patriots are not a strange and alien puzzle to solve.
THE CHARGERS COULDN'T STAY HERE
Several people wondered if the Chargers were staying on the East Coast this week rather than flying all the way back to Los Angeles just to have to turn around in a few days and fly back.
Here are some examples.
It’s not an awful question, so I won’t be a dink. But consider the logistical nightmare a team would embrace trying to do that? First of all, the Chargers didn’t know Foxborough was the hoped-for destination until the Colts beat Houston on Saturday. So if they HAD packed for a two-week trip, they would have had to secure hotels, practice fields, meeting rooms, training facilities, etc. in two different cities for a traveling party of about 100 people which would need inordinately high security.
Then they’d have to get all their things delivered, unpacked and set up -- after a huge win in Baltimore -- so they could hit the ground running Monday morning to prepare for a team that already had a week of rest and about a 24-hour head start in preparation.
Wouldn’t work. But the underlying fact is that the Patriots' advantage because they won their division and the Chargers didn’t is huge. Regardless of the fact the Chargers went 7-1 on the road in the regular season and have now won at Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Baltimore, this promises to be a lament all week long.
In his postgame on-field interview with CBS, Phillip Rivers was already talking about the strain of it.
“We’re gonna fly back home then we’re gonna fly back out here for another 10 a.m. West Coast kick . . . ,” he paused and asked teammate Melvin Ingram, “What’s the saying?”
“ASAP,” said Ingram. “Any Squad Any Place, we ball whatever.”
“We’ll be there next Sunday,” said Rivers.
Also in attendance will be inferences the Patriots benefit from beating up on the AFC East and that the Patriots shouldn’t host a playoff game against a team with a better record. Anticipate finger wags and recycled look-at-me takes from self-loathers saying New England needs to check its football privilege.
Whatever. The league wants it this way and fights to keep the seeding as is. Although nothing moves the NFL to action like the Patriots profiting from a long-standing rule so stay loose.
THE RAVENS GAME DIDN'T MATTER
You can’t possibly find two offenses less similar than the Ravens under Lamar Jackson and the Patriots under Tom Brady. Or defenses, for that matter.
Jackson is the fastest quarterback in the league. Brady is the slowest. Brady has almost two decades experience deciphering the most complex NFL defenses. Jackson just got his professional umbilical cord cut.
There may be similarities in personnel -- L.A. barely used linebackers on Sunday against the Ravens, relying on speedy secondary players to be sure tacklers against Jackson – but the execution will be different.
Also? Expect the Patriots to try and steamroll L.A. if their approach is to play sub-defense. Which would mean a big role for Sony Michel and James Develin.
If L.A. runs the 4-1-6 defense it normally does, that’s the evolution of defense that the Patriots were at the vanguard of. And if the Patriots go old school, two-back, Brady-under-center offense, that’s the zig to the zag we told you years ago was coming.
VERY SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s the little things in the playoffs. And often that means special teams, which we saw in both Sunday games.
Rookie kicker Michael Badgely made five field goals for the Chargers Sunday, while the Bears' Cody Parkey double-doinked a would-be game-winner to blow a game for Chicago.
But more noteworthy than the Chargers ability to make field goals was their proclivity for having them blocked. The Ravens got both a field goal and a punt on Sunday. L.A. also was flagged while receiving an onside kick when a player went upfield to block in the “neutral zone,” which is a fairly elementary rule that you shouldn’t be screwing up at this juncture. Bad day? Or is it an exploitable instance of not being on the details?
The Patriots’ coverage teams had a down year (horrible at the start, improving as the season went on), but their punt and field goal block crews have been excellent.
A VOTRE SANTE
That means “to your health” in French. I took eight years of that so any chance I get to use it -- and there aren’t many -- I’m dropping bon mots.
The Patriots are stunningly healthy for the 21st game of the year. The Chargers have seen more attrition. On Sunday, running back Melvin Gordon was forced from the game with a left knee injury that will probably linger all week. They played Sunday without nose tackle Brandon Mebane. They lost defensive tackle Corey Liuget and corner Jason Verrett much earlier in the season. Both are good players.
The freshness factor -- which could be amplified by the fact the Chargers are once again playing what amounts to a 10 a.m. game for them after flying across the country and back in less than a week -- is going to make a difference.
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