Theis week's Patriots Mailbag is in, friends. Every week I'll be answering your questions be they Patriots-related, about the league at large or otherwise. This week, the focus for many of you was -- no surprise -- how the offense can improve. We'll start there.
Love when our guy Ed checks in. Here's why expecting Isaiah Wynn to come in and make a world of difference isn't expecting too much.
The abridged version... Though we haven't seen much of Wynn, his quarterback, head coach and offensive line coach (none easy to please) haven't hidden the fact that they're eager to get him back.
What we've seen from Wynn is an athlete to mirror athletic edge rushers, who'll give Tom Brady piece of mind that his blindside is protected (he rendered suddenly-resurgent Bud Dupree a relative non-factor in Week 1). That athleticism should help the Patriots do more in the running game, getting their young left tackle out into space to take advantage of his movement skills.
And what we've seen from Wynn's replacement the last couple months allows you to understand why Brady has hurried at times even when he shouldn't.
Julian Edelman. I just think that for an offense that looks like it'll have to scrap for every first down it can, he's incredibly valuable to this team. Stephon Gilmore is the most valuable player on the team, in my opinion, but I think the Patriots defense is still good enough to win games if he had to miss time.
I'm not so sure what the offense would look like if Edelman was removed from the equation. I know it wouldn't look good.
The Patriots blitzed about a third of the time in Philly last week, according to Pro Football Focus. (Their definition of a blitz refers to an unexpected rusher entering into the pressure package. So if a corner comes off the edge but a lineman drops, and it's still a four-man rush, that still qualifies as a blitz for PFF.)
I don't know if the Patriots will blitz more this week. The numbers would suggest that maybe they should. But if the Cowboys have two backup linemen in the game -- which is possible with starters La'el Collins and Connor Williams dealing with injury -- then maybe the Patriots will be confident that they can generate pressure without bringing the house.
This was the position I put myself in, asking for questions at 11:30 pm on a Friday. I don't blame Mike. Nor do I blame whatever ridiculously-named craft beer he might've been enjoying at the time. (Tactical Nuclear Penguin? Hoptimus Prime? Yellow Snow IPA?) I blame myself.
Rich, 1) I think they have enough speed on offense. But it ain't much. Even thinking back to 2016, which wasn't exactly loaded with dynamic athletes, and that team was easily faster than this one. Chris Hogan was in his first and best year as a Patriot. Julian Edelman was three years younger. Ditto for James White. Rob Gronkowski was out of the mix because of injury, but Martellus Bennett would be the best athlete at tight end compared to those on the current roster.
The reason I say they have enough is I think they're going to be able to get by with what they have defensively, even if they're averaging scores in the low 20s the rest of the way. The issue will be this: Can they make a throw down the field when they need it? Even last year, when they were without Josh Gordon, they found explosive plays with Gronkowski in the AFC title game and Super Bowl. Who submits those this year?
2) Sony Michel and Brandon Bolden are backs I'd classify as "physical." I think you see it just about every time Bolden touches the ball. You haven't seen it from Michel because he hasn't gotten to the second level often enough. Unfortunately for the Patriots, he looks like a LeGarrette Blount type at the moment. He's not going to make someone miss in tight spaces at the line of scrimmage, but he's hard to handle at the second level. There's value there, but it's not going to avail itself if the team can't allow him to build some momentum and show off that physicality.
You shouldn't not be worried, Dave. That's just where the Patriots have been in 2019 after Stephen Gostkowski landed on injured reserve. That said, Nick Folk has given you everything you could ask for so far. I think it's possible to be encouraged by what Folk has done but remain realistic about the situation.
What the Patriots have at place-kicker (their kickoff guy/punter has been exceptional) is going to impact coaching decisions at some point, and it has the potential to be the determining factor -- one way or the other -- in tight games. This feels like the applicable expression here.
It's been ugly, Cherubin. I think you could make the case that their offense has benefitted from the schedule the same way the Patriots defense has. The Patriots defense is very good, but are they one of the best in history? Too early to say. I'd say the same for the Cowboys offense. Let's see what they do this week before we go overboard with the praise.
I think Dak Prescott has been incredible this year. I'd put him in the top-three on any MVP list. But he could be without two starting offensive linemen on Sunday. He'll be going against a great man-to-man defense. Let's see how it looks.
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The defense's reputation is that it's predictable. Coverage-wise they like Seattle's Cover 3, some Tampa 2, and the occasional man-to-man look. Maybe they'll shake things up, as they did in 2015, the last time they saw the Patriots.
But that's not what they've done this year. They force you to be patient. They force you to take short completions. They force you to protect the quarterback because if you don't he could get swallowed up by a tremendous pass-rush unit.
That sounds like the type of defense -- predictable, generous with the short stuff -- that Tom Brady will enjoy playing. His weapons will complicate the picture, but I think we'll have a better idea of how both teams REALLY stack up after this game. Their schedules leading up to this one have obviously been . . . meh.
I can tell you neither one of us is picky. I'm happy every week because the chowder in the Gillette Stadium press box is available every week. It's one of the best things available to us at any stadium.
Good question, Chris. Some of the numbers being thrown around for linebackers lately have been wild. CJ Mosley got $17 million per year from the Jets last offseason. Collins won't sniff that on his next contract, but he'll certainly have value.
I wonder if the Patriots -- based on where he's at in his career, and based on the fact that New England seems like the best place for him -- would try to get him on a short-term deal that would pay him close to what Kyle Van Noy got as an extension in 2017. That deal paid Van Noy $11.75 million over two years. That was two years ago. It's proven to be a steal. And Collins is in a much different place in his career than Van Noy was then.
But I could see something that would pay Collins an average annual value of $6.5 or $7 million a year being pretty reasonable. That'd put him almost in line with Jonathan Jones and just behind Dont'a Hightower. Feels right.
After a very strong start, I'm not sure how much support Collins will have when it comes to Pro Bowl or All-Pro voting. Being a menace for one of the best defenses in league history -- if that's how this one finishes -- would certainly help, and that might bump the expectations for his next deal.
This, friends, is a special occasion. Will is officially the most famous person to ever contribute to the Bag. He is *actually* everywhere you look. Commercial breaks during Celtics games. (He's the reason you've been itching to go get a Honda Pilot lately.) Bowling alleys. On stages telling jokes. Dominating local road races. The man is EVERY. WHERE. He's also in your ear holes more than you realize on sports talk radio. Grinder. And funny as hell. You should be following him if you don't already. And please support our inevitable podcast. That's a when-not-if thing.
Have to have bodies there. Newhouse would be the replacement if Wynn went down again. And it seems like the team sees something in Korey Cunningham. They traded for him. And despite being a healthy scratch just about every week, they keep him around. Maybe they see swing tackle ability for down the road.
Sure. You never said what level.
Think you would've seen them bring someone in by now if there was anyone out there they liked. Elandon Roberts has gotten looks there. James Ferentz has. Ryan Izzo and Ben Watson have. Bolden has been out there in a fullback capacity as well. And who could forget Eric Tomlinson? No real solution in sight there, though Roberts has the build and mentality to do what they ask.
Still, you're asking a linebacker to do something he's never really done. Does he want to do it? Is it comfortable for him? It'll be interesting to see how much more they ask him to do there.
What makes this game an odd one for the Patriots offense is what they're dealing with at receiver. Are they comfortable running N'Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers out there for 50 snaps? If not, then we're going to see fewer lighter personnel packages than we have since Sanu's arrival. They've been almost exclusively a three-receiver team with Sanu in the mix.
With the receiver depth hurting, that could press Matt LaCosse or Ryan Izzo into bigger roles, and then the idea of running from sub personnel might be harder to achieve.
The successful runs we've seen of late have been with lighter packages (and lighter backs) running during hurry-up stretches. Keeping tired defenders on the field has worked for them as they look for run-game improvements.
Wynn will help as well. It wouldn't shock me if we saw an improved running attack against a defensive front that really is the embodiment of the play-the-run-on-the-way-to-the-quarterback cliche.
Let's go rapid fired for the last few...
He did. His name was Eric Tomlinson.
https://twitter.com/KilloryMathew/status/1198112858678149120?s=20
Sure! And to answer, I won't be shamed. (If you heard the last few minutes of the 12 o'clock hour on Zolak and Bertrand Friday, you heard a fuller depiction of a traditional Mr. Fred setlist. Hardy wasn't completely disgusted, which I took as a positive. If you weren't listening, and none of this makes any sense to you, thanks for being here. We're almost done.)
Could be. One of the only guys I'd start in fantasy this week. Either team.
I think they're still trying to figure that out, Stephen. My guess: Risk-averse, in-shape. I think their biggest moments offensively are going to come with help from the hurry-up.
That is one key similarity, Steve, but I don't think the finished product is going to be the same. Unless Wynn's return has an even greater impact than I've predicted -- and I'm of the belief his impact will be huge -- then they simply don't have the personnel to run the football like they did late last year. I think their identity will end up being that they don't turn it over and that they're in better condition than most. Won't light up the scoreboard, but I think that'll be enough to get them deep into January.
https://twitter.com/jeff_yyz/status/1198095810132496384?s=20
Same, man. Protect those things at all costs. Especially the quarterback's.
Thanks to everyone who chipped in with a question this week. Late call to action and you all came through. You are appreciated. Enjoy this afternoon.
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