NFL Week 5 picks: Expert predictions for Patriots vs. Lions

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The New England Patriots almost never lose three games in a row.

Since the start of the 2001 season, the Patriots have suffered back-to-back-to-back defeats on just three occasions. One occurred in 2002, and the other two happened in the COVID season of 2020. 

A loss on Sunday to the Detroit Lions at Gillette Stadium would be the Patriots' third consecutive defeat and drop them to 1-4 through five weeks -- significantly decreasing their chances of returning to the NFL playoffs.

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The Lions are an interesting opponent for the Patriots. For starters, the Lions are explosive offensively. They lead the league in points scored and total yards per game. But the Lions also give up the most points and yards per game on defense. Detroit has played in several high-scoring games and, like the Patriots, has a 1-3 record entering Week 5. 

We don't yet know who will start at quarterback for the Patriots. It'll either be rookie Bailey Zappe or Mac Jones. Jones didn't play in Week 4 due to an ankle injury he suffered in Week 3. Regardless of which quarterback starts, we'll likely see a run-heavy offense from the Patriots on Sunday. The Lions allow 165 rushing yards per game, so Patriots running backs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson should get plenty of work.

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Which way are experts leaning in this Week 5 matchup between the Patriots and Lions? Here's a roundup of picks, with a score prediction if provided.

Tom E. Curran, NBC Sports Boston: 24-19 Lions

Mike Florio, ProFootballTalk: 34-20 Patriots

Albert Breer, Sports Illustrated: Patriots

Bill Bender, Sporting News: 30-26 Lions

Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: 27-24 Lions

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: 24-20 Patriots

Bill Bender, Sporting News: 30-26 Lions

Bleacher Report NFL Staff: 30-28 Lions

Jeremy Fowler, ESPN: Lions

Dan Graziano, ESPN: Patriots

David Hill, New York Times: Lions +3

Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Lions +3.5

FiveThirtyEight's model: Patriots have 55 percent chance to win

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