BALTIMORE — John Harbaugh said he believed Bill Belichick when the Patriots coach said that analytics matter "less than zero" to him when making in-game decisions.
Analytics, Harbaugh explained, are just one piece of the puzzle. And while he acknowledged that Belichick "has been very out in front in terms of strategic decision-making and using different forms of information," he said that no coach would be "basing your decision on what some number tells you."
Harbaugh, meanwhile, has been very open about how he listens to the numbers. Late in the third quarter it looked like the numbers were screaming at him to make an aggressive decision. He listened.
After Lamar Jackson ran for three yards on a third-and-seven play at the Patriots 41-yard line, Harbaugh never sent his punt team onto the field. He never sent kicker Justin Tucker onto the field to try a 55-yard field goal.
Harbaugh kept his offense out there. And offensive coordinator Greg Roman called the type of play the Patriots offense has run time and again in critical situations.
On the fourth-and-four snap, the Ravens ran a rub route on the outside that allowed Willie Snead to get open near the sideline and convert.
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With the score 24-20, Harbaugh played the numbers, and he won. Five plays later — including this highlight-reel run from Jackson — the second-year quarterback found Nick Boyle for a five-yard touchdown to take a 30-20 lead. The Ravens went on to win, 37-20.
Baltimore was the better team in a number of statistical categories at home Sunday night. They were a perfect four-for-four in the red zone. (The Patriots were 2-for-4.) They converted more than 50 percent, 6-for-11, of their third and fourth-down attempts. (The Patriots were 5-for-12.) They averaged 5.5 yards per carry. (The Patriots averaged 4.4, one of their better nights on the ground.) The Ravens held the ball for more than 36 minutes. (The Patriots were a shade over 20 minutes in the time-of-possession category.)
But the numbers that shifted the tide of this game for good, handing the Patriots their first loss of 2019 in the process, were the numbers Harbaugh had at his disposal on that fourth-and-four play late in the third quarter.
The Patriots are now 21-1 in their last 22 games against first-and-second year quarterbacks.
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