NFL fans are in for a treat Sunday because many of the Week 12 games will have a huge impact in both the AFC and NFC playoff races.
The two best matchups of the day are the AFC-leading New England Patriots hosting the Dallas Cowboys, and the NFC-leading San Francisco 49ers hosting the Green Bay Packers on "Sunday Night Football." The Patriots and 49ers both have slim one-game leads for the No. 1 seed in their respective conferences.
Here are the latest spreads, and my picks for Sunday's Week 12 games. All odds are from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. All picks are italicized.
1p.m. ET
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-10.5)
The Browns are finally starting to put it together and have won back-to-back games for the first time all season entering Sunday's home game against the 2-7 Dolphins. That said, we like Miami to cover, especially if we're getting a crucial half-point. The Dolphins play hard, they won't have to deal with Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, and they are 3-1 ATS on the road this season. A backdoor cover feels inevitable.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-4)
The Broncos are 3-7 overall but 6-4 against the spread after last week's cover against the Minnesota Vikings. Denver should be able to cover, and maybe even win outright, versus a Bills offense that has far fewer weapons than the Vikings. Denver was able to generate a strong pass rush with five sacks last week, and if it does that again to Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, the Broncos will leave New Era Field with a victory.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
This spread is too large. Pittsburgh cannot be trusted to cover after quarterback Mason Rudolph's dreadful performance against a lackluster Browns defense last week. It's also important to note Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey is suspended and No. 1 wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is out with an injury. It's hard to envision the Steelers offense scoring many points without its best offensive lineman and wide receiver. We like Cincinnati to cover for a second straight week.
New England Patriots
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New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-6)
It's hard to back the Bears with their horrendous offense and unreliable kicking game, but the Giants have lost six consecutive games, including a 1-5 ATS record over that span. New York allows the third-most points and sixth-most yards per game, so Chicago might actually be able to generate enough scoring to cover at home.
Oakland Raiders (-3) at New York Jets
This is a tough spot for Oakland having to fly coast-to-coast for a 1 p.m. ET game. That said, the stakes couldn't be higher for the Raiders. They absolutely need this game to remain in the AFC West title race and wild card hunt, and it's difficult to imagine the Jets winning three consecutive games.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
It's really tough to beat the Saints at home, where they are 4-1 this season. Expect Saints running back Alvin Kamara to run all over a Panthers defense that allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-most yards per rush and has given up the most rushing touchdowns of any team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
The Falcons are finally playing to their potential with back-to-back wins over the Saints and Panthers. They haven't allowed a touchdown in more than 150 consecutive minutes, and their defense shouldn't have too much trouble against a Buccaneers offense led by quarterback Jameis Winston, who leads the league in interceptions (18) and sacks (36).
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Washington Redskins
The Lions are better than their record indicates -- four of their six losses have come by one score. Detroit should be able to snap its 3-game skid against a brutal Washington team that has lost four games in a row with an average of 8.75 points scored over that stretch. It's also worth nothing the Redskins are 0-5 overall and 1-4 ATS at home.
4:05 p.m. ET
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3)
The Titans are suddenly a threat for an AFC wild card playoff berth after a huge upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10. After a Week 11 bye, expect a rested Titans team to take care of business at home versus a Jaguars team with a horrible run defense.
4:25 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and Dallas has the kind of rushing attack, led by star running back Ezekiel Elliott, that could give the Patriots' below-average run defense trouble. The Patriots might be without two of their top three wide receivers, as Phillip Dorsett will likely miss the game with a concussion while Mohamed Sanu is questionable with an ankle injury. New England's offense really struggled against a mediocre Philadelphia Eagles defense last week and barely escaped with a 17-10 road win. The Cowboys have scored 33.25 points per game over the last four weeks, and while the Patriots' No. 1 ranked pass defense is a tough matchup, Dallas should be able to keep this game close or even win outright.
8:20 p.m. ET
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
The Packers are 7-3 ATS (8-2 straight up) and have the advantage at quarterback in this matchup with Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers have played one really good opponent this season and lost 27-24 in overtime to the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago. The Packers had extra time to prepare for this game with a Week 11 bye, and given the importance of this game to Green Bay in the race for the No. 1 seed, we like Rodgers getting points on the road.
Pats' D must beat Prescott in this area of the field>>>
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