The New England Patriots should have a much-improved wide receiver corps in the 2019 NFL season, but would that be enough to help Tom Brady hit the over on Las Vegas' passing yards total for the veteran quarterback?
Oddsmakers at Caesars Palace have set Brady's over/under total at 4,139.5 passing yards.
This number should be pretty attainable for Brady. The 42-year-old quarterback has gone over this number in six of the last eight seasons (he played 12 games in 2016 due to suspension). He completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions last season, and these stats were considered disappointing by his lofty standards. Brady also had to deal with suspensions to wideouts Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, as well as injury concerns with tight end Rob Gronkowski.
Things are bit different entering the new season. Gordon is back from suspension, Edelman is healthy, Demaryius Thomas was signed in free agency and is healthy again, and rookie wideout N'Keal Harry has shown promise despite limited preseason action due to injury. Brady also has one of the league's best pass-catching running backs in James White.
One thing that could prevent Brady from hitting 4,140 passing yards is the Patriots continuing the power-running offense that worked so well for them in the playoffs last season en route to a Super Bowl LIII victory. Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, Brandon Bolden and White give the Patriots a deep, well-balanced rushing attack that could rank as one of the most effective groups in the league. New England ranked fifth in rushing yards per game in 2018.
New England Patriots
The over is the smart play here, but one of the most difficult things about betting on Patriots player props is the team's game plan often differs so much from week to week. Brady's consistency does alleviate some of those concerns, though.
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