The New England Patriots and Houston Texans will square off at NRG Stadium in Week 13 for a matchup that will have a huge impact on the AFC playoff race.
The defending Super Bowl champions sit atop the AFC standings with a 10-1 record after Sunday's 13-9 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Texans lead the AFC South by a slim one-game margin over the Indianapolis Colts, whom they beat on Thursday night to move up to the No. 3 seed in the conference.
Oddsmakers expect New England to keep rolling in Houston. The Patriots have opened as 3.5-point betting favorites on the road against the Texans.
Here are the opening betting lines for every Week 13 game, via the Westgate SportsBook in Las Vegas:
The smart bet right now is the Patriots.
They are 5-1 against the spread on the road (9-2 ATS overall) this season, whereas the Texans are just 1-4 ATS at home. The Patriots also have owned this matchup for many years. They have won nine of their last 10 meetings against the Texans teams by an average score of 33.5-18.9. New England also is 8-2 ATS over that span.
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The Patriots didn't fare well against Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in Week 9. Jackson consistently beat the Patriots through the air and on the ground, tallying 224 total yards and three touchdowns in a 37-20 victory. Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is similar to Jackson in that he's a fantastic dual-threat quarterback, and he should be able to give the Patriots' elite defense a genuine challenge.
This game should be fairly close, but the Patriots are the more trustworthy side from a betting perspective.
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