It's fall in New England, and the weather conditions for Thursday night's game between the Patriots and New York Giants at Gillette Stadium will be less than ideal.
The latest NBC Boston forecast for the Week 6 matchup calls for cloudy skies with a 90 percent chance of rain, including rainfall that might reach one quarter of an inch. Winds are expected to blow from from the north-northeast at 10 to 20 mph, with occasional wind gusts over 25 mph. The temperature should be in the low 50s most of the night in Foxboro.
Here are three takeaways from this weather forecast.
1. The Patriots are massive betting favorites versus the Giants, with the defending Super Bowl champions favored by as many as 17 points at some sportsbooks, and that number could rise before kickoffs. One of the arguments for betting against the Patriots (via the spread) is the sloppy weather conditions will make it tough for these offenses to score points.
The Giants already were likely to have trouble scoring given the astounding amount of injuries to their top offensive players. New York's top two running backs (Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman), its top wide receiver (Sterling Shepard) and starting tight end (Evan Engram) all have been ruled out for Thursday because of injuries. This scenario leaves rookie quarterback Daniel Jones in a pretty tough spot with so few of his most talented offensive weapons available.
The best bet tonight might be taking the under on the Giants team total.
2. From a fantasy football perspective, Patriots running back Sony Michel figures to have another strong game, especially if the weather make throwing the football unwise. Michel gave his best performance of the season in Week 5 against the Washington Redskins, tallying 91 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries (5.7 yards per rush). He also caught a career-high three passes for 32 yards in New England's 33-7 win. Michel has a favorable matchup versus a Giants defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league against the run. New York has allowed 130 rushing yards per game, 4.4 yards per carry and a total of four rushing touchdowns through five games.
3. The wind could make for a difficult night for kickers. Mike Nugent will be playing in just his second game as the Patriots' starting kicker, but he's enjoyed plenty of success at Gillette Stadium in his career, hitting on nine of his 11 field goal attempts and all 11 of his extra point kicks in Foxboro. The conditions might make Patriots head coach Bill Belichick and Giants head coach Pat Shurmur more likely to roll the dice on fourth down rather than kick a field goal of 40-plus yards, so fantasy owners should weight that as well.
The Patriots, for what it's worth, have fared quite well in windy conditions during the Tom Brady era.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET.
Tom E. Curran's Patriots vs. Giants preview>>>
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