How would Patriots have fared in 2020 if Stidham took over at QB?
What if the low point in the New England Patriots' 2020 season actually led Bill Belichick to pull the plug on Cam Newton?While there were calls to replace Newton with Jarrett Stidham last season, we never got to see the backup quarterback start a game. But thanks to our partners at Strat-O-Matic, we have an idea of how Stidham might have fared after taking over for Newton.Read on for a simulation of the Patriots' final 10 games of the 2020 season (after a Week 7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers) with Stidham, not Newton, under center.
Editors Note: Strat-O-Matic, the market leader in sports simulation, has partnered with NBC Sports Boston to build simulation experiences for "What If Wednesdays.”
What if the low point in the New England Patriots’ 2020 season led to a major shakeup?
After watching Cam Newton throw three interceptions on 15 attempts against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 7, Bill Belichick finally sent in backup Jarrett Stidham for fourth-quarter mop-up duty in the 33-6 loss.
Belichick returned to Newton the following week, however, and started the veteran quarterback in the team’s final 10 games as New England sputtered to a 7-9 record.
But let’s imagine an alternate universe in which Stidham takes over as the Patriots’ starter after Week 7. Would he finally thrive in a starting role or confirm the suspicions of critics who believe he’s not an NFL-ready QB?
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic used their advanced simulation software to find out, playing out Weeks 8 through 17 of the Patriots’ season with Stidham under center. The results were mixed, to say the least, but there’s an interesting upshot.
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We won’t sugarcoat it. The Stidham experiment doesn’t go well (if you're rooting for New England to win, that is). The Patriots go just 3-7 down the stretch under Stidham, who suffers a brutal 17-3 loss to the lowly New York Jets in his second start and doesn't earn his first win until Week 12.
In fact, the Stidham Patriots nearly finish with their worst record since 1992 but close the season with wins over the Bills and Jets to “salvage” a 5-11 record. More on those last two games shortly...
Tough sledding for Stid the Kid. The 24-year-old throws at least one interception in nine of his 10 starts and tosses multiple picks in five of those contests. If you’re looking for silver linings, his passing volume is a lot higher than Newton’s in real life (363 attempts compared to Newton’s 237 over the final 10 games).
But Stidham still only tops 300 passing yards once (against the Chargers) and doesn’t throw more than two TD passes in any game. He also fumbles five times, giving him a whopping 23 turnovers in 10 games.
The Patriots still lean heavily on the ground game under Stidham, with Damien Harris (670 yards on 14.7 attempts per game) seeing a bulk of the workload. In the passing game, Jakobi Meyers (546 yards) and Damiere Byrd (449 yards) carry the freight as Stidham’s top two wide receivers.
In an interesting wrinkle, N’Keal Harry becomes the QB’s go-to red zone target. Harry scores a touchdown on 20% of his receptions (four of 20) over the last 10 games.
About that final record… The Patriots finish third in the AFC East at 5-11, their worst result since 2000 and the eighth-worst record in the NFL. But had they not upset the division champion Buffalo Bills (who may have been resting their starters at this point) in Week 16, they would have finished 4-12, which would have guaranteed them a top-five pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
So, Bill Belichick’s competitiveness against his division foes over the final two weeks ends up bumping his team down a few spots on the draft board.
Maybe tanking isn't your thing, but with Stidham as the starter, it works: The Patriots still get the No. 8 overall pick in the NFL Draft, which gives New England a much better chance of landing one of five elite QBs – Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones – in that slot. It also puts the Patriots in a better position to trade up to, say the No. 4 position if they don’t think their guy will fall to No. 8.
Belichick and his players may tell you that every game counts, and that going 7-9 is better than finishing 5-11 even if it yields a lower draft pick. But in this scenario, the Patriots get to see what they have in Stidham (not a lot) and land a top-10 pick with the same final result (missing the postseason) as the real-life team.
