Forecasting the 2021 Patriots' season with Newton armed with two elite TEs
How might the 2021 NFL season unfold for the New England Patriots if Cam Newton is the starting QB in a new-look offense featuring elite tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the 2021 season and the results were pretty interesting. Let's take a look at what happened.
Editors Note: Strat-O-Matic, the market leader in sports simulation, has partnered with NBC Sports Boston to build simulation experiences for "What If Wednesdays.”
What does the 2021 New England Patriots' season look like with two elite tight ends and Cam Newton playing quarterback?
The Pats desperately needed to upgrade at tight end this offseason and they made a splash in NFL free agency by signing Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. Both players should provide consistent offensive production in the passing game and serve as quality run blockers in the rushing attack.
Who will be throwing them the ball Week 1? The top quarterback on the depth chart right now is Newton, who struggled in 2020 as the Patriots ranked in the bottom third of most passing categories. How would the upcoming season unfold if Newton was the starting QB?
Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the 2021 season and the results were pretty interesting. Let's take a look at what happened.
Newton was awful throughout 2020. The former league MVP threw just eight touchdown passes and failed to tally 200-plus passing yards in 10 of the 15 games he played.
The good news for Patriots fans in our simulation is Newton was more productive in his second season as the starting QB. It's not terribly surprising given the upgrades the team made at wide receiver and tight end during free agency.
Newton more than tripled his passing touchdown total from eight to 25, while keeping his interceptions at 10. He wasn't as accurate -- his sixth full season with a completion percentage below 60 -- but he did rack up 620 more yards and finished with a higher QB rating.
Newton also was more effective in the run game during our simulation. He improved from 4.3 yards per carry in 2020 to 5.6 in 2021, while increasing his rushing yards total from 592 to 717. He found the end zone less often as his rushing touchdowns dropped from 12 to five, but that isn't a surprise given the huge spike in his passing TDs.
The 31-year-old veteran also stayed healthy enough to play a full season. He accounted for 472 of the 474 pass attempts by Patriots quarterbacks. Backup Jarrett Stidham attempted the other two.
One of the key offseason additions for the Patriots so far is the signing of wide receiver Nelson Agholor to a two-year, $26 million contract.
Agholor had an excellent 2020 season with the Las Vegas Raiders and continued his strong play during our 2021 simulation.
The veteran wideout led the Pats with 53 receptions and 818 yards -- both represent the second-highest totals of his career for a single season. He also hauled in five touchdown catches, which tied Hunter Henry for No. 2 on the team.
Agholor's 15.2 yards per catch shows he gave Newton a reliable target on intermediate to deep pass attempts.
The Patriots brought in the two top free agent tight ends -- Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry -- and neither of them turned in a fantastic 2021 season.
Henry was slightly more productive with a higher number of receptions and yards. Smith had a small edge with six touchdowns. He also tallied fewer than three receptions in nine of his 16 games played, while also posting fewer than 40 receiving yards in all but three games.
Henry had some better individual games than Smith, but unlike his counterpart, the former Arkansas star was held without a catch twice -- once against the Dolphins and another time versus the Titans. Henry also had a poor game against the Bills with one catch for minus-2 yards.
Although few could have expected Smith and Henry to be as dominant as Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez were for a short time, it's also a little disappointing to see this duo fail to crack 500 receiving yards or 50 receptions in their first season with the Patriots.
How did the Patriots' new-look offense perform in our simulation?
The rushing attack took a small step back from last season. It totaled 150 fewer yards, 0.1 fewer yards per carry and three fewer touchdowns. Damien Harris and Cam Newton led the way in terms of yards, but it was Sony Michel leading the team with six rushing touchdowns.
The passing attack was much improved from 2020. The Patriots tallied 25 touchdown passes, up 13 from last season. Interceptions decreased from 14 to 10, and the offensive line allowed one less sack.
Julian Edelman was a non-factor with 17 receptions for 251 yards and zero touchdowns. Injuries over the last couple seasons have taken their toll on the 34-year-old wideout.
N'Keal Harry tallied a career-high four touchdown receptions, but the 2019 first-round pick posted just 26 catches for 274 yards. He did not make a significant leap in his development or on-field production in our simulation.
The Patriots averaged 22.8 points per game, a slight uptick from the 20.4 they scored in 2020. Still, 22.8 would've ranked 23rd in the league last season and isn't an impressive number.
The Patriots finished 9-7 in our simulation, which wasn't good enough to earn one of seven playoff spots in the AFC.
Although, there was one bright spot on New England's schedule, and that was an impressive 37-17 win over the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tom Brady's return to Foxboro.
The Patriots went 4-3 versus playoff teams from last season, including a pair of victories against the rival Bills. Disappointing losses to inferior opponents such as the Falcons, Chargers and Jets proved costly in New England's quest for a postseason berth.
