The race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs should be fascinating over the next few weeks even though only two teams, the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, are in serious contention for the prize.
The Patriots beat the Philadelphia Eagles 17-10 on Sunday to improve to an AFC-leading 9-1. The Ravens also earned a Week 11 victory, defeating the Houston Texans with ease in a 41-7 blowout. Baltimore is 8-2, but it holds the tiebreaker with New England as a result of its head-to-head win over the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 9.
So, what are the chances the Patriots stave off the Ravens and win the No. 1 seed?
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) model actually gives the Patriots have a 72.9 percent chance of getting the top seed. This might surprise you based on the Patriots' upcoming schedule, which is listed below:
Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East leaders)
Week 13: at Houston Texans (tied for AFC South lead)
Week 14: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West leaders)
FPI also gives the Patriots a 95.2 percent chance of earning at least the No. 2 seed, and a 28.8 percent chance of winning Super Bowl LIV -- 10 percent higher than the Ravens in second place.
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The Patriots didn't earn the No. 1 seed last season and it ultimately didn't cost them as they beat the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime of the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Securing the No. 1 seed obviously would be a huge help to the Patriots because the last visiting team to win a playoff game at Gillette Stadium was the 2012 Ravens. However, the primary goals for the Patriots should be just getting a first-round bye, and more importantly, making the necessary adjustments offensively that will allow Tom Brady and Co. to enter the playoffs with plenty of momentum and confidence.
Updated NFL playoff picture entering Week 12>>>
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