The New England Patriots failed to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last season, but it ultimately didn't matter after they beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium.
The defending Super Bowl champions have positioned themselves perfectly to lock up the AFC's top seed in 2019 after a perfect 8-0 start through the first half of the season.
What are the chances the Patriots secure the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage thoughout the playoffs? Well, ESPN's latest Football Power Index (FPI) projections give New England a 92.5 percent chance of accomplishing that goal.
Here's a full breakdown from ESPN FPI:
Here's a look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 9. New England has a clear advantage to this point.
1. New England Patriots, 8-0 (AFC East leader)
2. Indianapolis Colts, 5-2 (AFC South leader)
3. Baltimore Ravens, 5-2 (AFC North leader)
4. Kansas City Chiefs, 5-3 (AFC West leader)
5. Buffalo Bills, 5-2 (First Wild Card)
6. Houston Texans, 5-3 (Second Wild Card)
The Patriots played a soft schedule through eight weeks -- their opponents' combined win percentage (.250) is the lowest of any team. The next five weeks will tell us a lot about the real strength of this team. Over that span, the Patriots have the following matchups:
New England Patriots
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Week 9: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: at Philadelphia Eagles
Week 12: vs. Dallas Cowboys
Week 13: at Houston Texans
Week 14: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
New England finishes the regular season with matchups against the winless Cincinnati Bengals, the winless Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots could finish with the top seed even if they go 2-3 over their next five games, and that's a pretty pessimistic outlook given how they've played so far.
The Pats have won 21 consecutive games at Gillette Stadium, including the playoffs, and that's bad news for the rest of the AFC because the road to Super Bowl LIV in Miami likely will run down Route 1 in Foxboro.
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