DALLAS – This coulda/woulda/shoulda been a marquee game on the NFL schedule. Instead, it’s like the Patriots are playing a homecoming opponent on the road. Without Tony Romo, Dez Bryant and lesser offensive lights like Lance Dunbar and Brice Brown, the Cowboys are severely undermanned offensively. The Patriots haven’t entered the fourth quarters of their first three games with leads of 10, 24 and 27 points. This one could follow a similar script.
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
The Patriots scored every time they had the ball against the Jaguars. They took a week off. Now they are back to it and fully healthy. Dallas gets two players of note back this weekend after suspensions – defensive end Greg Hardy and linebacker Rolando McClain will be available. Hardy is an elite pass rusher but hasn’t played since Week 1 of 2014 so – while he can be expected to have some impact – it’s hard to envision him playing at a consistently high level all day. McClain, according to reports out of Dallas, is not in football shape. The Cowboys haven’t done a great job getting off the field on third down so far this year, allowing 44.2 percent conversions. They haven’t created many turnovers either – just two picks in their first four games The best Cowboys defender, linebacker Sean Lee, is probable to play after he sustained a concussion last weekend against New Orleans. If he can, it gives the defense a rudder. If he can’t the group is merely pedestrian. The Patriots have, in each game, at least started with a spread offense featuring Dion Lewis. The Cowboys are decent against the run (3.7 yards per carry allowed) a little looser against the pass and the Patriots could attack it the same way this week at the outset. Against the Jaguars, LeGarrette Blount got more use than he had as the lead grew. Tom Brady in a dome is a scary thing. Expect a big day for him.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The team that made the shotgun famous doesn’t have many shells to fire this week. You know about Romo and Bryant being out but the loss of Dunbar is an ammonia chaser to those losses. He’d become a weapon in the passing game. Without him, it’s handing the ball off to Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden, throwing it short to Jason Witten and Cole Beasley and mixing in the occasional downfield shot to Terrance Williams. Romo’s stand-in, Brandon Weeden, has been all a team could ask for in the two-plus games he’s played, especially given the expansion-level skill position guys he’s working with. A lot of that is made possible by the Cowboys offensive line which Bill Belichick this week described as the best in the league. Players like right guard Zach Martin and left tackle Tyron Smith are elite. And for the Cowboys, taking advantage of their ability to open holes and staying away from a shootout means that Randle and McFadden should be central to the Cowboys game plan. Beasley is a good slot receiver and Witten is still a high-end tight end but if the Patriots can handle the running game of the Cowboys on first and second down, they’ll be in terrific shape.
THE KICKING GAME
The Patriots’ specialists remain among the league’s best and that goes for their coverage and return units as well. Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey is 6 for 6 this season on field goals. Lance Dunbar, who was their best return guy, is done for the season. Punter Chris Jones has a 41.6 net and nine punts downed inside the 20.
PATRIOTS MEDICAL REPORT
QUESTIONABLE: CB Bradley Fletcher (hamstring), DL Trey Flowers (knee/shoulder); PROBABLE: CB Tarell Brown (foot), OL Ryan Wendell (illness).
COWBOYS MEDICAL REPORT
OUT: WR Dez Bryant (foot), WR Brice Butler (hamstring), DE Randy Gregory (ankle); QUESTIONABLE: TE James Hanna (ankle); PROBABLE: LB Andrew Gachkar (foot), LB Sean Lee (concussion), DE Ryan Russell (groin)
GAME WITHIN THE GAME
The Patriots are going to work to stress the Cowboys with tempo. Linebacker Sean Lee looks like a go after leaving last Sunday’s game with a concussion. He sets the Cowboys defense and without him against the Saints, the Cowboys eventually blew a coverage in overtime that led to the game-winning touchdown. Being on the road does impact the ability to communicate a little bit and could slow the Patriots but we’ll see if Jerry World gets a chance to get loud.
COWBOYS GOTTA STOP
Rob Gronkowski. Somehow, each week, defenses get crossed up and neglect to cover the best tight end in the game. Consider that Gronk is averaging nearly 20 yards on his 16 receptions and you get an appreciation of how much room he’s getting to operate after he makes catches. At some point, a defensive coordinator is going to tell one player to shadow Gronk everywhere. At least make him work to get open.
PATRIOTS GOTTA STOP
Jason Witten. He has been Brandon Weeden’s security blanket through the two-plus games Weeden’s been in and, even after all these years, he’s still one of the most surehanded and smart tight ends in the league. It will be interesting to see how the Patriots opt to deal with him, whether it’s with a safety like Duron Harmon or Patrick Chung or Jamie Collins. They all will likely get a crack – plus a few others.
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF...
This is a bridge too far for the Cowboys to clear. Dallas’ loss last week to New Orleans was demoralizing and damaging. They come into this with a less than 100 percent Sean Lee, no Dez Bryant, no Tony Romo, no Lance Dunbar – who’d emerged as the team’s pass-catching back. They allowed 39 to Atlanta two weeks ago. The Patriots could go off.
THAT SUMS IT UP PATRIOTS STYLE
“I think he’s done a good job for them. Certainly, he’s done a good job of spreading the ball around … He uses his back and outlet receivers well. It looks like they’ve put a lot of responsibilities on him with some audibles and check-with-me’s in the run game or run-pass checks, whatever it is, but you can see him making decisions at the line of scrimmage based on the defensive look and getting the offense into the right place. So, he’s obviously a pretty smart guy that has a good command of what they’re doing.” – Bill Belichick on Dallas quarterback Brandon Weeden.
THAT SUMS IT UP COWBOYS STYLE
“I think they are a great football team. They are obviously very well coached. They just do a fantastic job coaching their football team to win football games each and every week. Obviously they have some great, great players. Their quarterback is outstanding. He runs their offense as efficiently and as well as any quarterback does in the National Football League. He juts does such a good job getting the ball to the right guy at the right time; they attack you so many different ways. Defensively they do a really good job affecting the quarterback, affecting what other teams do well. They just play at a very high level throughout their team. Their special teams make a ton a plays in every game. They challenge you in so many different ways and they play at a very high level.” – Jason Garrett, Cowboys head coach, on facing the Patriots.
THE WINNER IS...
Patriots 37, Cowboys 21