An NFL general manager who likes to get his blood pumping with some old fashioned risk-taking has come to the right draft.
Havoc wrought by the pandemic means there’s never have been a draft where evaluators know less about the prospects they’ll be bringing onto their teams.
The 2021 draft class isn’t a full-on crapshoot. Trevor Lawrence, for instance, is going to be very good. So will Kyle Pitts. But all those other quarterbacks? All those wideouts that may go in the top 10? All that projecting after a pandemic-riddled season?
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"There’s so many gaps," former NFL executive Thomas Dimitroff told me recently on Tom Curran’s Patriots Talk Podcast. "The people that opted out, the people that had injuries ... I look across the draft board and I’ve been amazed at some of the very talented players out there who are projected very high who have gaps in their background, gaps in play time because they opted out or had injuries."
Patriots Talk Podcast: Thomas Dimitroff goes deep on the ’21 draft class and Patriots' approach | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
"That’s complicated," said Dimitroff. "When you’re a GM or coach and your world is relying on all the information on the field and what your scouts get traveling around, you are going into this draft with a lot of questions. I’m not saying you can’t pull it off. You can. Everyone’s in the same world.
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"But I will tell you as a team builder, when you have to look your owner in the eye ... you have to hope your scouts did everything they can to make sure they were crossing their T’s and dotting there I’s. But under the table you are crossing your fingers and squeezing your hands hoping it works out."
Among the more significant prop bets for teams picking at the top of the first round? Start with Zach Wilson locked in at No. 2, even though he threw 11 TDs and nine picks in 2019 and thrashed very shrug-worthy competition last season. Or Trey Lance, almost a lock to go in the top 10. Not only did he play just one game in 2020, he didn't even play D-1.
The three best wideouts? Ja’Marr Chase opted out, Jaylen Waddle missed much of the season with a mangled ankle and 166-pound Heisman Trophy-winning DeVonta Smith needs to start mainlining McDonalds ASAP. The upsides of all these players, though, ensure that teams are going to shrug off the, "Yeah, buts ..." and place their bets. Happily.
Take Smith, for instance. There’s not a team in the league with a wideout prototype that suggests 170 pounds as an ideal weight. But he’s brilliant. Worth breaking the mold for?
Curran: Does DeVonta Smith's slight frame rule him out for the Patriots?
Here’s what Dimitroff said.
"He is unbelievably talented," Dimitroff began. "The mold and being sub-170 is a complicated spot to be in. We’ve had receivers who were in the (mid-170s) who would drop down to the high 160s or low 170s. We’ve even had receivers who were in low 190s and they dropped into the mid-180s. That’s tough to deal with sometimes. You have to be ready for that. But you have to understand that, with a ton of talent, (that player) can be a mold-breaker."
A team builder has to know what’s right for his team, though, said Dimitroff. And if that unique talent has a trait that isn’t ideal, the due diligence done will make him comfortable making the selection. Though not 100 percent assured that trait will never be used against him.
"(As a GM), you know what’s gonna happen," Dimitroff explained. "All of a sudden for someone who takes the mold-breaker, you’re hanging out there a little bit. One injury happens or one annihilating hit and someone gets hurt, you’ll get, 'What were you thinking? It was right in your face, you knew what you were dealing with ..."
"Not just Smith of course, he’s wildly talented, but anybody," Dimitroff added. “To break the mold, ultimately, you have to have done your due diligence. You have to have done a ton of research, you have to have thought it out very well and realize that player is ideal for your system.
Dimitroff broke the mold a bit when, as GM of the Falcons, he made one of the boldest moves in recent draft history. The player he took with the sixth pick in 2011 -- Julio Jones -- wasn’t a dice roll. But the compensation the Falcons gave up to move from 27 to six made it a landmark move.
"When we made that decision on Julio Jones, it wasn’t easy and we gave up massive compensation to get it," Dimitroff explained. "We wanted someone on our team along with Michael Turner who was our running back at the time and Tony Gonzalez who was the tight end and Matt Ryan who was the quarterback. We wanted that receiver that was gonna take that offense to another level and he was gonna have defenses on their heels whether it was four catches or 14 catches in a game and we feel we accomplished that. But you have to have something really, really substantial to go for a mold-breaker."
When you think about it, the whole 2021 draft is a mold-breaker. Teams just don’t have the same level of information on players this year they normally do. And that’s why there will be plenty of GMs crossing their fingers and squeezing their hands under the table when they make their selections beginning Thursday.