Curran: Season preview and prediction for your 2022 Patriots

Twenty years ago, the Patriots were fresh off a Super Bowl win and their aim for 2002 was to start HOTT!!!

Bill Belichick even had t-shirts made for his players with a simple slogan:

TARGETING SEPTEMBER.

Belichick doesn’t do inspirational t-shirts as much these days. If he did, though, what would the 2022 slogan be?

TARGETING ... EH ... WHENEVER ...

Whether it’s Belichick citing a "process" or Matt Patricia talking about the "journey" or this week’s casual acknowledgment by the head coach that September’s an extension of the preseason and that it may take until Halloween to know what’s what, the Patriots aren’t quite oozing urgency.

Patriots Talk: Season preview: just how much patience is necessary in ‘22 | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

The most apt buzzword for this year? Patience.

That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Remember, the ’02 Patriots targeted the hell out of September and went 6-6 in October, November and December, missing the playoffs with Tom Brady as their season-long starter for the only time in his 19-year reign.

The Patriots have wobbled out of the gates plenty of times before and had things turn out great. In 2014, they got their collective heads caved in by the Chiefs. They won the Super Bowl four months later. In 2018, they were 9-5 and lost every game to non-playoff teams. They won the Super Bowl.

I vividly remember Tom Brady telling me three days after the aforementioned loss to the Chiefs, "Talk to me in a month and see where we are." In 2018, after a December loss to the Steelers dropped them to 9-5, he told me, "I know this, I wouldn’t want to play us in the playoffs."

But we all understand that those Patriots teams -- with the best player of all time at quarterback, a Hall of Fame tight end and guys like Darrelle Revis, Stephon Gilmore, Dont'a Hightower, Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman running around – were a lot different than this year’s model.

An appearance in the NFL’s Final Four was annually guaranteed those teams because of Brady, Belichick and the roster Bill built. Even if they started slowly, when it got icy out, the Patriots found their footing.

The last three seasons, Belichick’s teams have stumbled late. This year, a huge degree of difficulty has been added to the proceedings. In a move that’s either inspired or cavalier, Belichick opted to replace offensive mastermind Josh McDaniels with ... nobody at all. At least by title. Practically speaking, Patricia appears to be the main playcaller. First time doing that for him. He’s also offensive line coach. Something he hasn’t done in 17 seasons.

Mac Jones’ quarterback coach is Joe Judge. He’s not held that job before. And Belichick decided that now would be a good time to pivot the offense away from the scheme they ran for a couple decades with much success to a more user-friendly offense that -- at least so far -- has run as smoothly as a car with square wheels.

Updated Patriots depth chart after cutdown day

So yeah. Patience isn’t just a virtue this year as Belichick sells hope and change, it’s a necessity.

Despite the steady drumbeat of pessimism and the relatively low expectations for any kind of playoff run, there is a path to 2022 success.

Even if it doesn’t end with a duck boat parade, the steady improvement Belichick is betting on should come. Mac Jones will inevitably struggle a bit without McDaniels and behind an iffy offensive line. But there’s a complement of skill position players, especially at tight end and wide receiver, who should make life easier. If the team gets a better return on the investments made on Jonnu Smith and Nelson Agholor and if the trade for DeVante Parker shows the dividends it looks like it may, that’s buildable for 2023.

It’s also very worth noting that the crop of 2021 and 2022 draft choices are poised to start becoming the core of the team. The Patriots didn’t ante up for either Stephon Gilmore or J.C. Jackson but their secondary actually appears to be a big strength coming out of camp.

And the speed and front-seven playmaking that’s been lacking was addressed directly in the offseason. There’s plenty to like about the way the Patriots have reconfigured their defense.

More than anything, the Patriots need to show in 2022 that they can close the season with the arrow pointing up. That they can compete in their division against teams like Buffalo and Miami that have more on-paper talent. They are 2-7 against the Bills and Dolphins over the past two seasons.

If they can’t do any of the above -- show steady improvement, make Belichick’s pivot to a new offense with a duct-taped set of coaches around Jones work and narrow the gap between themselves and Buffalo and Miami (yes, Miami ...), that would be a fail.

Owner Robert Kraft said in March how much the team’s three-year playoff win drought was eating at him. Odds are the drought will extend to four seasons. If the drought extends and the 2022 Patriots improvements are hard to see, that would be cause for real concern. Because even with a boatload of cap space for 2023 and an encouraging crop of young players, this year is all about direction.

Are the post-Brady Patriots just treading water? Or are they making progress on their much-referenced process? The win total matters. But who the wins come against and how is going to matter too. The fine print on 2021 showed the Patriots bullied bad or undermanned teams and were beaten up on by teams they used to push around.

With three of their first four games on the road, an 0-4 start is not beyond the realm of possibility. But the next four after that are easy enough to envision 4-4. The Patriots close with three of their final five games on the road. The final four are against playoff teams from last year.

It feels like 8-9. And a very interesting offseason that will be informed by how well the patience requested was ultimately rewarded.