2021 NFL free agency predictions: Patriots' free-agent destinations on defense
The Patriots have plenty of salary cap space available to sign free agents, so external free agents have been all the rage among fans this offseason.But what about their own free agents? The Patriots have plenty of guys that are ready to test the free-agent waters this offseason on March 17, so they'll have to bring back some of those players as well.On defense, the Patriots have five notable players, including two top cornerbacks, two key pass rushers, and a run-stuffing specialist and captain. Here's a look at where those five players will land when the dust settles during free agency.
Prediction: Signs with New York Giants on three-year, $22.5 million contract
Butler has been a pretty consistent contributor for the Patriots since entering the league as an undrafted rookie in 2017 (at least 480 snaps per year). Over the last two seasons, as a key piece to the two and three-man games Bill Belichick calls up front to scheme pressure, he's racked up 10.0 sacks and helped teammates pile up many more. He's going to have a case to be paid this offseason. He's durable -- one missed game in four seasons -- and teams pay attention to sack numbers.
Moreover, Butler does well according to some of the advanced numbers. He's been in the top-30 in PFF's pass-rush productivity metric for defensive tackles each of the last two years (26th in 2019, 23rd in 2020), which put him in the same range as much bigger names like Sheldon Richardson (29th in 2019, 24th in 2020, makes $12 million per year) and Michael Brockers (29th in 2019, 29th in 2020, $8 million per year).
Butler doesn't have the long-term reputation those players do, nor the full-time roles they've had, but at 27 he's younger than both, and a case could be made he's worthy of a lucrative multi-year deal.
The cratering cap could throw a wrench in that scenario, but maybe Butler finds what he's looking for in New York, playing for old friend Joe Judge. The Giants could lose key interior defenders Leonard Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson to free agency this spring.
Prediction: Signs with New England Patriots on two-year, $10 million contract
Guy has become a captain in New England and one of the most important players on the Patriots defense. The team will slot him across from an opponent's best offensive lineman at times in order to choke out whatever it is that lineman does to help the offensive machinery run smoothly.
It's dirty work, but no one on the Patriots roster has been better in that regard over the last several years.
He's not a premier pass-rusher, and he's 31 years old. Combine those factors with the cratering cap, and the dollar figure on Guy's next deal likely won't be exorbitant. But here, after proving his worth to the Patriots over four seasons, he gets a bump on the average annual value he pulled in on his last deal ($3.6 million). It's just a shorter-term pact.
Prediction: Signs with New England Patriots on one-year, $4.8 million contract
Keeping Jackson around on a first-round restricted free agent tender qualifies as a no-brainer for the Patriots. The only question is whether or not there's a team out there that would be willing to sign Jackson to a long-term deal, and give up a first-round pick for Jackson.
Maybe a corner-needy team in contention at the bottom of the draft like Kansas City, for instance? At that point, would the Patriots match to keep Jackson around? There's a chance they're without Stephon Gilmore next season, making Jackson their best in-house option as the No. 1 corner. Or would Belichick take the pick, chalk it up to part of the rebuild and move on?
While it would leave them light at corner, it's not hard to envision the Patriots taking the draft choice and looking ahead to the future.
Prediction: Signs with New England Patriots on one-year, $3.5 million contract
McCourty played on a base salary of $2.65 million last season with an ability to earn almost $1 million in per-game roster bonus money. He and the Patriots are essentially running it back for one more year on this deal. The team could use a veteran corner if and when Gilmore moves on, and McCourty gives Belichick some flexibility in the secondary as he has the ability to play in the slot and as a safety.
Plus, the term of this projected deal would allow McCourty to sync up with the timing on the contract signed by his brother Devin, who has one season remaining on his deal (with three void years attached).
Prediction: Signs with Buffalo Bills on three-year, $19.5 million contract
Wise is an interesting free-agent case for a variety of reasons. He's been a bit of an odd fit in the Patriots scheme the last couple of years as he's a 'tweener edge for them. His body type more befitting of a 4-3 style defense as opposed to the 3-4 style Bill Belichick has deployed since 2019.
Wise gained weight last offseason to better hold up on the interior, but he's a long and talented pass-rusher when aligned wide with his hand in the dirt. While his raw box score numbers won't blow anyone away -- 14 sacks in four seasons -- he has a top-10 pass-rush win rate over the last two seasons, per Pro Football Focus.
The Bills like longer ends, they could use some pass-rush help, and they may be able to strike a deal here with an old division opponent. This deal would come in a tick below the average annual value of the contract Emmanuel Ogbah (18 sacks in his first four seasons) signed with the Dolphins last year.
