This model's odds of Celtics winning 2022 NBA Finals will surprise you

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The Boston Celtics are flying high with an eight-game win streak entering Tuesday night's game against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Boston was playing very well before last week's NBA trade deadline, and then the team traded for versatile guard Derrick White and brought back veteran center Daniel Theis in separate deals. The C's also parted with Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, Dennis Schroder, Bruno Fernando, Enes Freedom and draft picks.

The Celtics have won both of their games since White was brought into the fold, and he's played quite well, too. Boston's defense has been fantastic since Jan. 1 and the primary driver of the team's success over the last month-and-a-half. The Celtics now rank fourth among all teams in net rating and second in defensive rating.

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The Celtics' recent success has heightened expectations for what this team might be capable of come playoff time. Perhaps the most bullish sign is from FiveThirtyEight, whose statistical model gives the Celtics the third-best chance of winning the 2022 NBA Finals at 16 percent.

No, that's not a misprint. 

Here's a summary of projections from FiveThirtyEight's model:

  • Celtics to win NBA Finals: 16 percent
  • Celtics to reach Eastern Conference Finals: 27 percent
  • Celtics to make the playoffs: 99 percent
  • Projected record: 49-33

For context, the Celtics have a better chance to win the NBA Finals -- according to FiveThirtyEight -- than every team except the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns. The Golden State Warriors, who own the second-best record in the Western Conference entering Tuesday, are given just a three percent chance of winning the Finals. 

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The Celtics do look like a really good team. The elite defense is most encouraging. A closing lineup of White, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams III is one of the best in the league with the potential to be highly productive at both ends of the court. 

But the Eastern Conference is pretty deep with quality teams. In addition to the Celtics, other teams with a real chance to win the conference title include the Nets, Bucks, 76ers and Miami Heat. The Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers shouldn't be taken lightly, either. 

The Celtics, at their best, can beat these teams in a playoff series. But can they play at that high level over the course of three consecutive playoff series and reach the NBA Finals? Time will tell.

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