The Miami Heat aren't the most talented team in the Eastern Conference. They didn't make any significant offseason additions and lost a key role player in P.J. Tucker.
But here's your annual disclaimer to never count out the Miami Heat.
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Erik Spoelstra's club battled to the East's No. 1 seed last season and was a short-rimmed Jimmy Butler 3-pointer away from reaching the NBA Finals for the second time in three seasons. The energy the Celtics expended to get past Miami in the East Finals was a big reason why Boston fell short in the NBA Finals.
So, how do the 2022-23 Heat compare to the 2021-22 Heat? Should the Celtics expect to see them in late May, or are they a tier below East juggernauts like Boston, Milwaukee and Philadelphia? Let's break down the one of the grittiest teams in basketball.
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Editor's Note: Can the Celtics repeat as East champions? Throughout this week, we're examining the five East teams that have the best chance of reaching the 2023 NBA Finals. Today's team: The Miami Heat.
Heat's 2021-22 results
- 53-29 record
- First in Eastern Conference
- Lost in East Finals to Boston Celtics (seven games)
Heat's 2022-23 NBA title odds (via PointsBet)
Boston Celtics
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18/1 (ninth overall, fifth in East)
Notable offseason acquisitions, departures
Acquisitions: None
Departures: P.J. Tucker, Markieff Morris
Projected starting five (2021-22 stats)
- PG: Kyle Lowry (13.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 7.5 apg, 44.0% FG, 37.7% 3PT)
- SG: Tyler Herro (20.7 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 4.0 apg, 44.7% FG, 39.9% 3PT)*
- SF: Jimmy Butler (21.4 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 5.5 apg, 48.0% FG, 23.3% 3PT) (57 games)
- PF: Caleb Martin (9.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 50.7% FG, 41.3% 3PT)
- C: Bam Adebayo (19.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 3.4 apg, 55.7% FG) (56 games)
*Herro usually comes off the bench for Miami in a Sixth Man role with Duncan Robinson starting, but we're including him in the "starting five" as one the Heat's most productive players.
Matchups with Celtics in 2022-23
- Oct. 21: Celtics at Heat
- Nov. 30: Heat at Celtics
- Dec. 2: Heat at Celtics
- Jan. 24, 2023: Celtics at Heat
How likely are Heat to finish ahead of C's in East?
The Heat's two best players (Butler and Adebayo) missed a combined 53 games last season and they still finished as the No. 1 seed. That's how they roll in Miami, where castoffs like Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Caleb Martin often overachieve to fill key roles.
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That said, it's tough to imagine the Heat clawing their way to another top-three seed. They had the NBA's 17th-ranked scoring offense last season despite leading the league in 3-point percentage, and that latter number should take a dip following Tucker's departure. While Miami's defense will be stout, it just doesn't have enough scoring depth outside Butler, Herro and Adebayo to get to 50ish wins.
We could see the Heat landing a No. 4 seed if Butler, Adebayo and Lowry stay relatively healthy, but cracking the Top 3 of the Celtics, Bucks and 76ers will be a tall task.
Who wins in a playoff series: Boston or Miami?
Run it back!
Celtics fans may still have nightmares about the Heat forcing 102 Boston turnovers over seven games in the 2022 ECF. Miami is loaded with grizzled playoff veterans, and the team's defensive prowess makes it a very hard out regardless of how the offense performs.
The C's are battle-tested after their last postseason run, however, and boast more offensive firepower than the Heat, especially after the addition of Malcolm Brogdon. His presence would be crucial in a series like this to get Boston's offense under control and prevent the Heat from capitalizing on turnovers.
The Celtics would need Robert Williams and Al Horford at full strength in this one to neutralize Adebayo, but assuming the full health of both rosters, Boston's talent and depth win out.
Prediction: Celtics in six